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The FIW - Research Centre International Economics (https://www.fiw.ac.at/) is a cooperation between the Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU), the University Vienna, the Johannes Kepler University Linz, the University of Innsbruck, WIFO, wiiw and WSR. FIW is supported by the Austrian Federal Ministries of Education, Research and Science (BMBFW) and of Labour and Economy (BMAW).

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E. Smeral, "Tourismus im Spannungsfeld der internationalen Konjunktur- und Wachstumsdynamik"
no. 017 , pp. 8 , Dec. 2012.

File:fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Policy_Briefs/17.FIW_Policy_Brief_Smeral.pdf

Abstract: Da der Tourismus im Allgemeinen zeitverzögert reagiert, zeigt sich die Verschlechterung der wirtschaftlichen Situation in Europa noch nicht deutlich in den internationalen Tourismusdaten des Jahres 2012. Die derzeitige Lage im österreichischen Tourismus lässt sich so beschreiben, dass sich die Tourismusnachfrage (gemessen in realen Umsätzen) im Vergleich zu allen anderen wirtschaftlichen Aktivitäten wie Konsum, Ausrüstungsinvestitionen und Warenexporten im Zuge des Konjunkturaufschwunges und der Belebung der internationalen Tourismusnachfrage nach der Überwindung der Rezession 2009 nicht deutlich beleben konnte. Damit geriet die Tourismuswirtschaft gegenüber der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung immer mehr in Rückstand. Erst im Laufe des Jahres 2012 dürfte sich die touristische Situation etwas verbessern. Die Konsequenzen des längeren Nachhinken eines Sektors im Vergleich zur Gesamtwirtschaft sind erheblich, da der Wachstumsrückstand einen Preis-, Kosten- und Gewinndruck sowie in der Folge strukturelle Wettbewerbsnachteile für den betroffenen Wirtschaftszweig erzeugt. Auch im internationalen Vergleich zeigte sich, dass Österreich 2011 – gemessen an den nominellen Tourismusexporten der EU 15 – seinen Marktanteil nicht halten konnte. Gegenwärtig liegt der österreichische Markanteil mit 5,9% nur mehr knapp über dem historischen Tiefpunkt des Jahres 2000 (5,4%). 2012 dürften die Marktanteile im besten Fall gehalten werden können.

R. Römisch, "Foreign Trade and FDI in the Austrian Regions – A new methodology to estimate regional trade and an analysis of the crisis effects" ,
Oct. 2012. pp. 8.

File:fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Studien_2012_13/02-ExecutiveSummary-Falk.pdf

Abstract: Foreign trade and foreign direct investments (FDI) are key elements for economic development and growth of both a country and its regions. This paper focuses on foreign trade and FDI in Austrian regions (Bundesländer). Unfortunately, data on regional trade in Austria is only available on a very limited basis. The aim of this study is to develop new methodologies for the estimation of exports and imports of Austrian regions and analyse the data generated by this methodology. The basic idea is to disaggregate national foreign trade data to the regional level by using national input-output, regional employment and other supplemental data. This allows estimating Austrian regional foreign trade for the years 1999 to 2009. The study shows a large variation in trade among regions. Lower Austria, Upper Austria, Styria and Vorarlberg are the regions with the highest export share. The importance of regional trade increases between 1999 and 2008; the crisis in 2009 had a strong negative impact. Furthermore, the competitiveness of regions differs considerably. Only three regions, Upper Austria, Styria and Vorarlberg, show trade surplus.

Foreign Trade and FDI in the Austrian Regions – A new methodology to estimate regional trade and an analysis of the crisis effects .
File:fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Studien_2012_13/01-PolicyNote-Roemisch.pdf

Abstract: Foreign trade and foreign direct investments (FDI) are key elements for economic development and growth of both a country and its regions. This paper focuses on foreign trade and FDI in Austrian regions (Bundesländer). Unfortunately, data on regional trade in Austria is only available on a very limited basis. The aim of this study is to develop new methodologies for the estimation of exports and imports of Austrian regions and analyse the data generated by this methodology. The basic idea is to disaggregate national foreign trade data to the regional level by using national input-output, regional employment and other supplemental data. This allows estimating Austrian regional foreign trade for the years 1999 to 2009. The study shows a large variation in trade among regions. Lower Austria, Upper Austria, Styria and Vorarlberg are the regions with the highest export share. The importance of regional trade increases between 1999 and 2008; the crisis in 2009 had a strong negative impact. Furthermore, the competitiveness of regions differs considerably. Only three regions, Upper Austria, Styria and Vorarlberg, show trade surplus.

R. Römisch, "Foreign Trade and FDI in the Austrian Regions – A new methodology to estimate regional trade and an analysis of the crisis effects" ,
Oct. 2012 , pp. 66.

Weblink:fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Studien_2012_13/01-PolicyNote-Roemisch.pdf _blank
File:fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Studien_2012_13/01-ResearchReport-Roemisch.pdf

Abstract: Foreign trade and foreign direct investments (FDI) are key elements for economic development and growth of both a country and its regions. This paper focuses on foreign trade and FDI in Austrian regions (Bundesländer). Unfortunately, data on regional trade in Austria is only available on a very limited basis. The aim of this study is to develop new methodologies for the estimation of exports and imports of Austrian regions and analyse the data generated by this methodology. The basic idea is to disaggregate national foreign trade data to the regional level by using national input-output, regional employment and other supplemental data. This allows estimating Austrian regional foreign trade for the years 1999 to 2009. The study shows a large variation in trade among regions. Lower Austria, Upper Austria, Styria and Vorarlberg are the regions with the highest export share. The importance of regional trade increases between 1999 and 2008; the crisis in 2009 had a strong negative impact. Furthermore, the competitiveness of regions differs considerably. Only three regions, Upper Austria, Styria and Vorarlberg, show trade surplus.

R. Römisch, "Foreign Trade in the Austrian Regions"
no. 016 , pp. 7 , Oct. 2012.

File:fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Policy_Briefs/16.PolicyBrief.Roemisch.pdf

Abstract: This policy brief introduces a method to estimate foreign trade of the nine Austrian NUTS-2 regions. The basic idea of the method is to disaggregate national foreign trade data to the regional level using national input-output, regional employment and other supplemental data. This allows for the estimation of foreign trade of the Austrian regions for the years 1999 to 2009. The results indicate highly differentiated patterns of trade competitiveness across the Austrian regions. While Upper Austria and Vorarlberg perform well on European and global markets, other regions, foremost Burgenland, are in a much more difficult position. The regions’ reactions to the 2009 economic crisis were equally differentiated. Although the decline of foreign trade led to an employment loss in all Austrian regions, Vorarlberg and Tyrol proved to be much more resilient than others.

G. Aslanyan, Migration Challenge for PAYG.
Sep. 2012.

File:fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Working_Paper/N_101-Aslanyan.pdf

Abstract: Immigration has been popularised in the economics literature as a tool to balance the troubled PAYG pension systems. A pivotal research by Razin and Sadka showed that unskilled immigration can surmount the pension problem and, further, boost the general welfare in the host economy. However a large strand of current economics literature is engaged in identifying mechanisms through which unskilled immigration, while solving the pension problem, causes undesired shifts in general welfare. This work shows that actually recurring unskilled immigration may challenge the entire pension system and decrease the pension benefits themselves.

V. Astrov and Y. Wolfmayr, "FIW Kurzbericht Nr. 9"
no. 009 , pp. 6 , Sep. 2012.

File:fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Kurzbericht/09.Kurzbericht_September_2012.pdf

Abstract: FIW publishes quarterly FIW Notes. They present an overview of the most important Austrian and international developments regarding international economics. There is only a German version available.

K. Benkovskis and J. Wörz, Non-Price Competitiveness of Exports from Emerging Countries.
Aug. 2012.

File:fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Working_Paper/N_100BenkovskisWoerz.pdf

Abstract: We analyse EMEs global competitiveness whereby we explicitly take account of non-price aspects of competitiveness building on the methodology developed in Feenstra (1994) and Broda and Weinstein (2006) and the extension provided in Benkovskis and Wörz (2012). We construct an export price index which adjusts for changes in the set of competitors (variety) and changes in non-price factors (quality in a broad sense) for a set of nine large emerging economies (Argentina, Brazil, Chile, China, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Russia and Turkey). We use a highly disaggregated data set at the detailed 6-digit HS level over the period 1999-2010. In contrast to the conclusions based on the CPI-based real effective exchange rate we find that there are rather pronounced differences between individual markets. As a first and important result, China shows a huge gain in international competitiveness due to non-price factors thus suggesting that the role of Renminbi undervaluation for China’s competitive position may be overstressed. The strong improvements in Russia's non-price competitiveness are exclusively due to developments in the oil sector as are the competitive losses observed for Argentina and Indonesia. Further, Brazil, Chile, India, and Turkey show discernible improvements in their competitive position when accounting for non-price factors while Mexico's competitiveness has deteriorated regardless of the index chosen.

R. Pittiglio, F. Reganati and E. Sica, Do Mulitnational Enterprises push up the wages of domestic firms in the Italian manufacturing sector?.
Jul. 2012.

File:fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Working_Paper/N_099PittiglioRganatiSica.pdf

Abstract: The present paper aims to test the impact of incoming Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) on local wages in the Italian manufacturing sector by using firm level data from 2002 to 2007. Results initially show the lack of wage spillovers at both horizontal and vertical level, meaning that the effects of foreign investment are completely internalized within each firm. However, when the technology gap is taken into account, we find some evidence of a non-linear relationship between gap size and wage spillover. In particular, if the technological gap between local firms and foreign companies is too large, Multinational Enterprises (MNEs) face some difficulty in interacting with domestic suppliers and customers, with the consequence that they act like monads within the host country. We therefore believe that policies favouring the attraction of inward investments, should not be of the ‘one for all’ or ‘one for always’ type, but must be strongly directed towards the sectoral and local characteristics of the host country.

N. Antonakakis and H. Badinger, Output Volatility, Economic Growth, and Cross-Country Spillovers: New Evidence for the G7 Countries.
Jun. 2012.

File:fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Working_Paper/N_098-AntonakakisBadinger.pdf

Abstract: This paper considers the linkages between output growth and output volatility for the sample of G7 countries over the period 1958M2-2011M7, thereby paying particular attention to spillovers within and between countries. Using the VAR-based spillover index approach by Diebold and Yilmaz (2012), we identify several empirical regularities: i) output growth and volatility are highly intertwined, with spillovers taking place into all four directions; ii) the importance of spillovers has increased after the mid 1980s and reached unprecedented levels during the recent financial and economic crisis; iii) the US has been the largest transmitter of output and volatility shocks to other countries. Generalized impulse response analyses point to moderate growth-growth spillovers and sizable volatility-volatility spillovers across countries, suggesting that volatility shocks quintuplicate in the long run. The cross-variable effects turn out negative: volatility shocks lead to lower economic growth, growth shocks tend to reduce output volatility. Our findings underline the increased vulnerability of the G7 countries to destabilizing shocks and their detrimental effects on economic growth, which are sizeably amplified through international spillover effects and the associated repercussions.

M. Berger and H. Hollenstein, Determinants of Equity-based and Co-operative Foreign R&D and Impact on the Parent Firm’s Performance.
Jun. 2012.

File:fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Working_Paper/N_097-BergerHollenstein.pdf

Abstract: The paper complements entry mode research by dealing with the choice of alternative modes of governance in the specific case of foreign R&D and its impact on a parent firm’s performance. Firstly, we identify the factors that determine whether a firm locates abroad any R&D activities, and, if it does so, whether it chooses an equity-based rather than a non-equity co-operative mode of governance. The OLI paradigm is used as theoretical background of this analysis. Secondly, we determine the impact of foreign R&D on a parent firm’s performance in terms of innovation output and labour productivity, and investigate whether this effect differs among firms using the one or the other governance mode. The study is based on separate estimations for Switzerland and Austria using comparable firm data and model specifications. The two countries are interesting cases as they strongly differ in terms of level and pattern of internationalisation.

R. Stöllinger and S. Sieber, "FIW Kurzbericht Nr. 8"
no. 008 , pp. 6 , Jun. 2012.

File:fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Kurzbericht/08.Kurzbericht_Juni_2012.pdf

Abstract: FIW publishes quarterly FIW Notes. They present an overview of the most important Austrian and international developments regarding international economics. There is only a German version available.

A. Algozhina, Monetary and Fiscal Policy Interactions in an Emerging Open Economy Exposed to Sudden Stops Shock: A DSGE Approach.
May 2012.

File:fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Working_Paper/N_094-Algozhina.pdf

Abstract: The monetary and fiscal policy interactions have gained a new research interest after the 2008 crisis due to the global increase of fiscal debt. This paper constructs a macroeconomic model of joint fiscal and monetary policy for an emerging open economy taking into account its structural uniqueness. In particular, the two instruments of monetary policy, interest rate and foreign exchange intervention; the two instruments of fiscal policy, government consumption and government investment; and a sudden stops shock through the collateral constraint of foreign borrowings are modeled here in a single DSGE framework. The parameters are calibrated for the case of Hungary using data over 1995Q1-2011Q3. The impulse response functions show that government consumption is unproductive and increases fiscal debt as opposed to government investment, foreign exchange intervention positively affects net exports but does not stimulate an economy per se causing inflation, and a negative shock to the upper bound of leverage ratio in the collateral constraint of foreign borrowings generates a sudden stops crisis for the emerging world. Monetary and fiscal policy intimately interact in the short and medium run such that there is an immediate response of monetary instruments to fiscal shocks, while fiscal instruments adjust to monetary shocks in the medium run.

S. Dhingra and J. Morrow, kein titel.
May 2012.

File:fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Working_Paper/N_088-DhingraMorrow.pdf

Abstract: A fundamental question in monopolistic competition theory is whether the market allocates resources efficiently. This paper generalizes the Spence-Dixit-Stiglitz framework to heterogeneous firms, addressing when the market provides optimal quantities, variety and productivity. Under constant elasticity of demand, each firm prices above its average cost, yet we show market allocations are efficient. When demand elasticities vary, market allocations are not efficient and reflect the distortions of imperfect competition. After determining the nature of market distortions, we investigate how integration may serve as a remedy to imperfect competition. Both market distortions and the impact of integration depend on two demand side elasticities, and we suggest richer demand structures to pin down these elasticities. We also show that integration eliminates distortions, provided the post-integration market is sufficiently large.

F. Hubert and O. Cobanli, Pipeline Power.
May 2012.

File:fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Working_Paper/N_093-HubertCobanli.pdf

Abstract: We use cooperative game theory to analyze the strategic impact of three controversial pipeline projects. Two of them, Nord Stream and South Stream, allow Russian gas to bypass transit countries, Ukraine and Belarus. Nord Stream’s strategic value turns out to be huge, justifying the high investment cost for Germany and Russia. The additional leverage obtained through South Stream, in contrast, appears small. The third project, Nabucco, aims at diversifying Europe’s gas imports by accessing producers in Middle East and Central Asia. The project has a large potential to curtail Russia’s power, but the benefits accrue mainly to Turkey, while the gains for the EU are negligible.

R. Frensch, J. Hanousek and E. Kocenda, Incomplete specialization and offshoring across Europe.
May 2012.

File:fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Working_Paper/N_091-FrenschHanousekKocenda.pdf

Abstract: Recent empirical studies have been searching for evidence on and driving forces for offshoring. Frequently, this has been done by analyzing gross trade flows related to offshore activities using gravity equations augmented by ad hoc measures of supply-side country differences. This paper suggests that gravity formulations of this sort are mis-specified, due to theoretically unmotivated attempts to allow for both complete and incomplete specialization influences on gross trade flows within the same gravity framework. We suggest an alternative specification rooted in incomplete specialization that views bilateral gravity equations as statistical relationships constrained on countries’ multilateral specialization patterns. This view reveals that countries’ multilateral specialization incentives drive bilateral trade, corresponding to and competing with the role of multilateral trade resistance. Our results support evidence for offshoring activities across Europe, driven by countries’ multilateral specialization incentives, as expressed by supply-side country differences relative to the rest of the world.

H. Badinger and K. Mayr, Skill-biased technological change, unemployment and brain drain.
May 2012.

File:fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Working_Paper/N_089-FadingerMayr.pdf

Abstract: We develop a model of directed technological change, frictional unemployment and migration to examine the effects of a change in skill endowments on wages, employment rates and emigration rates of skilled and unskilled workers. We find that, depending on the elasticity of substitution between skilled and unskilled workers and the elasticity of the matching function, an increase in the skill ratio can reduce the relative unemployment rate of skilled workers and decrease the relative emigration rate of skilled workers (brain drain). We provide empirical estimates and simulations to support our findings and show that effects are empirically relevant and potentially sizeable.

N. Foster, R. Stöllinger, C. Altomonte and R. Kneller, "The Trade-Productivity Nexus in the European Economy" ,
May 2012. pp. 40.

File:fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Spezial/5.FIW-Special_Trade and Productivity _policy report__20120613.pdf

Abstract: This FIW Special – International Economics contains a policy report on the relationship between trade and productivity in the European Economy. The reports consists of three chapters which all mainly deal with empirical evidence from firm level but with each chapter focusing on a specific aspect of the trade and productivity nexus. Chapter 1 presents some initial findings on the relationship between exporting and productivity for Austrian exporters in the manufacturing industry. Chapter 2 offers new insights into the relationship between exporting and productivity by introducing the cross-country dimension of the export behaviour and internationalisation strategies of European firms. This kind of analysis became possible due to a recently compiled cross-country firm level data set covering seven European countries. Chapter 3 focuses on the causality between exporting and productivity which is a key question also for economic policy. The chapter summarises existing results on self-selection into exporting and the learning-by-exporting hypothesis but also acknowledges that productivity growth is not only driven by within-firm productivity growth but also the reallocation of resources between firms, the entry and exit of firms as well as shifts of resources between industries.

M. de Pinto, Unemployment Benefits as Redistribution Scheme of Trade Gains - a Positive Analysis.
May 2012.

File:fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Working_Paper/N_092-Pinto.pdf

Abstract: Trade liberalization is no Pareto-improvement - there are winners (high-skilled) and losers (low-skilled). To compensate the losers the government is assumed to introduce unemployment benefits (UB). These benefits are financed by either a wage tax, a payroll tax, or a profit tax. Using a Melitz-type model of international trade with unionized labor markets and heterogeneous workers we show that: (i) there is a threshold level of UB where all trade gains are destroyed, (ii) this threshold differs between different kind of taxes, (iii) there is a clearcut ranking in terms of welfare for the chosen funding of the UB: 1. wage tax, 2. profit tax, 3. Payroll tax.

E. Christen, Time zones matter: The impact of distance and time zones on services trade.
May 2012.

File:fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Working_Paper/N_090-Christen.pdf

Abstract: Using distance and time zone differences as a measure for coordination costs between service suppliers and consumers, we employ a Hausman-Taylor model for services trade by foreign affiliates. Given the need for proximity in the provision of services, factors like distance place a higher cost burden on the delivery of services in foreign markets. In addition, differences in time zones add significantly to the cost of doing business abroad. By decomposing the impact of distance into a longitudinal and latitudinal component and accounting for differences in time zones, we can identify in detail the factors driving the impact of increasing coordination costs on the delivery of services through foreign affiliates. Working with a bilateral U.S. data set on foreign affiliate sales in services we examine the impact of time zone differences and East-West and North-South distance on U.S. outward affiliate sales. We find that both distance as well as time zone differences have a significant positive effect on foreign affiliate sales. By decomposing the effect of distance our results show that increasing East-West or North-South distance by 100 kilometers raises affiliates sales by 2%. Finally, focusing on time zone differences our findings suggest that affiliate sales increase the more time zones we have to overcome.

N. Antonakakis, Exchange Return Co-movements and Volatility Spillovers Before and After the Introduction of Euro.
May 2012.

File:fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Working_Paper/N_080-Antonakakis.pdf

Abstract: This paper examines co-movements and volatility spillovers in the returns of the euro, the British pound, the Swiss franc and the Japanese yen vis-à-vis the US dollar before and after the introduction of the euro. Based on dynamic correlations, variance decompositions, generalized VAR analysis, and a newly introduced spillover index, the results suggest significant co-movements and volatility spillovers across the four exchange returns, but their extend is, on average, lower in the latter period. Return co-movements and volatility spillovers show large variability though, and are positively associated with extreme economic episodes and, to a lower extend, with appreciations of the US dollar. Moreover, the euro (Deutsche mark) is the dominant currency in volatility transmission with a net volatility spillover of 8% (15%) to all other markets, while the British pound is the dominant net receiver of volatility with a net volatility spillover of -11% (-13%), in the post- (pre-) euro period. The nature of crossmarket volatility spillovers is found to be bidirectional though, with the highest volatility spillovers occurring between the European markets. The economic implications of these findings for central bank interventions, international portfolio diversification and currency risk management are then discussed.

E. Archanskaia and G. Daudin, Heterogeneity and the Distance Puzzle.
May 2012.

File:fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Working_Paper/N_095-ArchanskaiaDaudin.pdf

Abstract: This paper shows that reduced heterogeneity of exporter-specific goods can provide a direct explanation of the distance puzzle. Using COMTRADE 4-digit bilateral trade data we find that the elasticity of trade to distance has increased by 8% from 1962 to 2009. Theoretical foundations of the gravity equation indicate that the distance coefficient is the product of the elasticity of trade costs to distance and a measure of heterogeneity, e.g. the substitution elasticity between exporter-specific goods in the Armington framework. This parameter has increased by at least 12-29% from 1962 to 2009. The evolution of the distance coefficient is thus compatible with a 4-16% reduction in the elasticity of trade costs to distance.

M. Wermelinger, Do "green" state measures make import patterns "climate-friendly"? The case of the Asia-Pacific region.
May 2012.

File:fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Working_Paper/N_079-Wermelinger.pdf

Abstract: This paper estimates to what extent "green" crisis-era measures have an impact on the "climate-friendliness" of imports in the Asia-Pacific region. Testable predictions and the empirical strategy are derived from the seminal paper of Eaton and Kortum (2002). The empirical results show that at the intensive margin implemented "green" measures are associated with an increase of sourcing from more rather than less energy intensive countries. One reason for this surprising result may be that governments have presented the state interventions as being "green" although the main purpose was not the environment. At the extensive margin, results are slightly more promising. The implementation of "green" measures seems to decrease the likelihood that imports are sourced from a relatively more energy intensive origin. However, the results are not very strong as to statistical and economic significance. In sum, only limited evidence for environmental benefits of "green" crisis-era interventions through the import channel exist. The implementation of such measures may in fact be associated with an environmental degradation of imports. Moreover, supplier countries being "close" competitors to the interventionist country (in terms of technology levels) relatively loose import share if discriminatory "green" measures are implemented. Stated differently, the alleged "green" measures protect domestic against foreign suppliers with similar technology levels.

B. Dluhosch and D. Horgos, (When) Does Tit-for-Tat Diplomacy in Trade Policy Pay Off?.
May 2012.

File:fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Working_Paper/N_085-HorgosDluhosch.pdf

Abstract: In international relations, short-run incentives for non-cooperation often dominate. Yet, (external) institutions for enforcing cooperation are hampered by national sovereignty, supposedly strengthening the role of selfenforcing mechanisms. This paper examines their scope with a focus on contingent protection aka tit-for-tat in trade policy. By highlighting various strategies in a (linear) partial-equilibrium framework, we show that retaliation of non- cooperative behavior by limiting market access works as a disciplining device independently of supply and demand parameters. Our theoretical results are backed by empirical evidence that countries more frequently involved in WTO-mediated disputes entailing tit-for-tat strategies pursue on average more liberal trade regimes.

C. Schitter, M. Silgoner, K. Steiner and J. Wörz, Fishing in the same pool: Export strengths and competitiveness of China and CESEE at the EU-15 Market.
May 2012.

File:fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Working_Paper/N_096-SchitterSlaonerSteinerWoerz.pdf

Abstract: We investigate the impact of the emergence of China as a global competitor on the trade performance of Central, Eastern and Southeastern European (CESEE) countries at the EU-15 market. The paper takes a comprehensive approach in terms of empirical methods and data. We analyze export growth, export market shares, extensive and intensive margins and the number of trade links, applying highly disaggregated data at the 6 digit HS level over the period 1995 – 2010. We show that the most contested markets are those for capital goods and transport equipment, product categories where both regions have gained market shares and comparative advantage. We show that the number of trade links at the product level where both regions are active has increased substantially, indicating intensified competition. At the same time hardly any trade links were lost, which points against cut-throat competition between CESEE and China. The decomposition of export growth along the extensive versus the intensive margin shows that in line with the literature, the deepening of already existing trade relationships (i.e. the intensive margin) contributed most strongly export growth in both regions, whereas the contribution of new trade links (i.e. the extensive margin) had only a minor contribution, apart from the instance of EU accession which boosted the extensive margin considerably. We further decompose intensive margin growth into demand related structural effects and a supplier related competitiveness effect. Both the CESEE region and China successfully intensified their trade linkages above all as a result of their outstanding competitiveness as shown by the econometric shift-share analysis. While this suggests that both regions pursue a able export strategy, further diversification of production towards promising new industries and markets will become increasingly crucial for both, especially in face of projected slower EU-15 market growth in the longer run.