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The FIW - Research Centre International Economics (https://www.fiw.ac.at/) is a cooperation between the Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU), the University Vienna, the Johannes Kepler University Linz, the University of Innsbruck, WIFO, wiiw and WSR. FIW is supported by the Austrian Federal Ministries of Education, Research and Science (BMBFW) and of Labour and Economy (BMAW).

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B. Dluhosch, D. Horgos and K. W. Zimmermann, EU Enlargement and Satisfaction with Democracy: A Peculiar Case of Immizerising Growth.
Apr. 2013.

File:fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Working_Paper/N_115-DluhoschHorgosZimmermann.pdf

Abstract: Studies on EU enlargement mostly focus on its welfare-economic and much less so on its public-choice dimension. Yet, the latter may be as important as the former when it comes to sustain integration. This paper aims at filling the gap by exploring theoretically and empirically how enlargement of multi-level systems like the EU affects satisfaction with democracy (SWD) and voter turnout (PART). In order to assess the effects of a widening in membership, we present a novel approach that draws on the probability of being outvoted. We find that, given the institutional arrangement, enlargement tends to depress SWD. Our theoretical results are backed by empirical evidence in German Eurobarometer data displaying a tendency towards a decline in SWD that shows up in a significant fall in PART with growth in EU-membership.

C. Dreger and J. Wolters, Money demand and the role of monetary indicators in forecasting euro area inflation.
Apr. 2013.

File:fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Working_Paper/N_119-DregerWolters.pdf

Abstract: This paper examines the stability of money demand and the forecasting performance of a broad monetary aggregate (M3) in predicting euro area inflation. Excess liquidity is measured as the difference between the actual money stock and its fundamental value, the latter determined by a money demand function. The out-of sample forecasting performance is compared to widely used alternatives, such as the term structure of interest rates. The results indicate that the evolution of M3 is still in line with money demand even in the period of the financial and economic crisis. Monetary indi-cators are useful to predict inflation, if the forecasting equations are based on measures of excess liquidity.

G. Orefice, International Migration and Trade Agreements: the new role of PTAs.
Mar. 2013.

File:fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Working_Paper/N_111-Orefice.pdf

Abstract: This paper investigates empirically the role of Preferential Trade Agreements (PTAs) as determinants of migration inflows for 29 OECD countries in the period 1998-2008. By increasing information about signatory countries, PTAs are expected to drive migration flows towards member countries. Building on the empirical literature on the determinants of migration, I estimate a modified gravity model on migration flows providing evidence of a strong positive effect of PTAs on bilateral migration flows. I also consider the content of PTAs as a further determinant of migration, finding that visa-and-asylum and labour market related provisions, when included in PTAs, stimulate bilateral migration flows. Finally, by comparing the average effects of PTAs on migration flows and on trade, I show that PTAs stimulate bilateral migration flows more than trade in final goods. PTAs might be used by government to increase inflows of immigrant workers in the case of labour shortages or population ageing.

A. Jambor, Country-specific determinants of horizontal and vertical intra-industry agri-food trade of the Visegrad Countries.
Mar. 2013.

File:fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Working_Paper/N_104-Jambor.pdf

Abstract: The article analyses patterns and country-specific determinants of Visegrad Countries’ (VC) agri-food trade with the European Union. Literature focusing on the country-specific determinants of vertical and horizontal intra-industry trade is rather limited and those analysing agricultural (or agri-food) trade are extremely rare. Therefore, the paper seeks to contribute to the literature by covering latest theory and data available on the topic to provide up to date results and suggestions. Moreover, it seeks to identify the determinants of horizontal and vertical intra-industry trade of the Visegrad Countries after EU accession. Results suggest that agri-food trade of the Visegrad Countries is mainly inter-industry in nature but intra-industry trade is dominated by vertical elements. Results verify that determinants of horizontal and vertical IIT differ and suggest that economic size is positively, while distance is negatively related to both sides of IIT. However, the relationship between vertical IIT and differences in factor endowments as well as FDI is ambiguous.

R. Horváth and D. Vaško, Central Bank Transparency and Financial Stability: Measurement, Determinants and Effects.
Mar. 2013.

File:fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Working_Paper/N_113-HorvathVasko.pdf

Abstract: We develop a comprehensive index of the transparency of central banks regarding their policy framework to promote financial stability for 110 countries from 2000 to 2011 and examine the determinants and effects of this transparency. We find that the degree of transparency increased in the 2000s, though it still varied greatly across the countries in our study. Our regression results suggest that more developed countries exhibit greater transparency, that episodes of high financial stress have a negative effect on transparency and that the legal origin matters, too. Importantly, we find that transparency regarding the level of financial stability is strongly affected by monetary policy transparency. The central banks that have a transparent monetary policy are more likely to show increased transparency in their framework for financial stability. Our results also suggest a non-linear effect of central bank financial stability transparency on financial stress. Unless the financial sector experiences severe distress, greater transparency is beneficial for financial stability.

B. Jovanovic, Aggregation Bias in Trade Elasticities: The Case of Macedonia.
Mar. 2013.

File:fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Working_Paper/N_106-Jovanovic.pdf

Abstract: This paper evaluates the bias which may occur when trade elasticities are estimated using data on aggregate trade, instead of using data on bilateral trade. The exercise is done on the case of Macedonia. Elasticities obtained from aggregate-trade data, using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag approach, are compared with the elasticities obtained from bilateral-trade data, using dynamic heterogenous panels techniques. Results point out that the aggregation bias is sizeable and that relying on aggregate data can lead to wrong conclusions about the trade elasticities.

J. Püschel, Wage effects of U.S. service offshoring by skills and tasks.
Mar. 2013.

File:fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Working_Paper/N_107-Pueschel.pdf

Abstract: In this paper, I estimate the impact of service offshoring on the real wages of U.S. workers by controlling for workers’ skill levels and the offshoring susceptibility of different tasks. Matching individual-level wage data with input-output tables over the period from 2006 to 2009, I am further able to account for unobservable individual-level heterogeneity. The results from a Mincerian wage regression indicate that within skill groups, the impact of service offshoring on real wages depends on the task content of the respective occupation. The real wages of medium- and high-skilled workers employed in the least offshorable occupations were positively affected by service offshoring. However, within the groups of medium- and high-skilled workers, service offshoring negatively affected the real wage of the most tradable occupations.

T. Tsenova, International Monetary Transmission with Bank Heterogeneity and Default Risk.
Mar. 2013.

File:fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Working_Paper/N_110-Tsenova.pdf
N. Behncke, Assessing the impact of European Integration on sectoral trade in services.
Mar. 2013.

File:fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Working_Paper/N_109-Behncke.pdf

Abstract: The present paper contributes to the existing literature analyzing the relationship between intra EU trade in services and European Integration by taking into consideration a potential endogeneity bias of the EU dummy and a correct specification of multilateral resistance terms in a panel data set covering the years 2000-2010. Our results offer evidence for a high positive impact of European integration on aggregate services trade between member states while we find a negative effect of monetary integration. However, there exist notable differences at the sector level. According to our results, European integration has positive effects especially for business services, travel and EDV services. Analyzing the evolvement of the sectoral EU-effects over time shows that exports of EDV and OBS have steadily increased due to European integration.

A. Gehringer, Another look at the determinants of current account imbalances in the European Union: An empirical assessment.
Mar. 2013.

File:fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Working_Paper/N_105-Gehringerpdf.pdf

Abstract: In a dynamic panel framework, I investigate the qualitative aspects of factors determining current account imbalances in (country groupings within) the European Union. I consider the standard determinants of current account positions discussed in the past literature, but additionally, I include a series of explanatory variables that refer to the sectoral composition of the European economies and that could have significantly contributed to the current account developments in the past decades. Independently of the econometric method used, the main finding suggests that the economic predominance of the construction sector might have played an important role in aggravating current account positions in the European economies. In parallel, some negative influence could be found for some other service sectors, but this shouldn’t be of much concern due to their role played in the growth process.

J. Héricourt and S. Poncet, Exchange rate volatility, financial constraints and trade: empirical evidence from Chinese firms.
Mar. 2013.

File:fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Working_Paper/N_112-HericourtPoncet.pdf

Abstract: This paper studies how firm-level export performance is affected by Real Exchange Rate (RER) volatility and investigates whether this effect depends on existing financial constraints. Our empirical analysis relies on export data for more than 100,000 Chinese exporters over the period 2000-2006. We confirm a trade-deterring effect of RER volatility. We find that the value exported by firms, as well as their probability of entering new export markets, decrease for destinations with higher exchange rate volatility and that this effect is magnified for financially vulnerable firms. As expected, financial development does seem to dampen this negative impact, especially on the intensive margin of export. These results provide microfounded evidence that financial constraints may play a key role in determining the macro impact of RER volatility on real outcomes.

V. Astrov and E. Christen, "FIW Kurzbericht Nr. 11"
no. 011 , pp. 7 , Mar. 2013.

File:fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Kurzbericht/11.Kurzbericht_März_2013.pdf

Abstract: FIW publishes quarterly FIW Notes. They present an overview of the most important Austrian and international developments regarding international economics. There is only a German version available.

R. Stöllinger, International spillovers in a world of technology clubs.
Mar. 2013.

File:fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Working_Paper/N_114-Stoellinger.pdf

Abstract: Technology is a key element for long-term growth and economic development. Given the stark concentration of innovation activities in a few countries most countries have to rely on the international diffusion of newly developed technologies. Some countries may fail to successfully perform the task of technology adaption leading to a tripartite segmentation of countries into an innovation club, an imitation club whose members are capable of absorbing technologies developed by the former and a stagnation group that lack the capability to absorb foreign technologies. We test the role of the technology gap for growth as suggested by the technology club hypothesis in a threshold regression framework using human capital as the threshold variable. Using this approach, which is related to Benhabib-Spiegel type growth regressions, we are able to identify two distinct thresholds giving rise to three country groupings. As suggested by the theory of technology clubs we find the strongest effects from the catch-up term on economic growth for the intermediate group (imitation club).

D. Calin-Vlad, Eu enlargement and the gains from trade.
Mar. 2013.

File:fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Working_Paper/N_108-Calin.pdf

Abstract: In this paper I quantify the welfare gains of the 2004 EU enlargement as a result of the abolition of border controls, both for incumbents and for new members. I build a multi-sector Ricardian model, allowing for linkages across sectors, similar to the one in Caliendro and Parro (2011). As with a large number of quantitative trade models, the gains crucially depend on one key parameter, the dispersion of productivity. I extend the estimation methodology of Costinot et al. (2012) to a richer modeling setting and compute the dispersion in a way consistent with the underlying theoretical model. Within the model, I compare the welfare changes for 23 countries between 2003 and 2006. I find that new entrants gained significantly more than old members from enlargement. However, the overall changes in real income are rather small, measured in single digits for new entrants and fractions of a percent for old members. I also break down total gains by source and find that allowing for interconnectedness across sectors amplifies the changes in welfare.

M. Frey and Z. Olekseyuk, The EU-Ukraine trade liberalization: How much do the costs of tariff elimination matter?.
Feb. 2013.

File:fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Working_Paper/N_103-FreyOlekseyuk.pdf

Abstract: The establishment of the currently negotiated Free Trade Agreement (FTA) between EU and Ukraine is the next significant step towards Ukraine’s deeper integration into the world economy, widely expected to result in additional welfare gains. As developing countries face some costs associated with trade liberalization, this paper contributes to the literature by analyzing the effects of the EU-Ukraine FTA taking into account the loss of tariff revenues as well as the changed economic conditions after Ukraine’s accession to the WTO in 2008. In particular, we calculate the effects of a unilateral tariff elimination in a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model for Ukraine simulating three scenarios reflecting different means to compensate for the loss in tariff revenues. It turns out to be important to take these costs into consideration while modeling trade liberalization, as the results vary significantly across the scenarios. In general, we find that tariff elimination has only a small impact on the country’s welfare because of the already strongly reduced tariff rates after Ukraine’s WTO accession. The effects can even be negative if the country tries to refinance the trade liberalization costs by means of tax policy. According to our simulations the most welfare enhancing option would be the provision of financial support by the EU, which is in fact suggested in the latest European Parliament resolution.

S. Richter, "The EU’s Multi-Annual Financial Framework for 2014-2020: an Old Construct Fit for a Changed EU?"
no. 019 , pp. 6 , Feb. 2013.

File:fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Policy_Briefs/19.FIW_PolicyBrief_Richter.pdf

Abstract: As a consequence of the 2008-2009 international financial crisis the European Union is undergoing per-haps its most difficult period since the beginnings of the European integration. The response to this challenge includes decisions and planned steps to strengthen fiscal discipline in the member states, safeguard measures against a falling-apart of the eurozone and the introduction of a Union-wide super-vision of the European banking sector. A new fiscal capacity (budget) for the eurozone is under consid-eration. It seems that the extraordinary situation has triggered a wave of extraordinary reforms throughout the EU. In one area, the Community Budget, however, time seems to have stopped temporarily. The European Council of 22-23 November 2012 was unable to arrive at a compromise on the terms of the Multi-annual Financial Framework (MFF or the EU budget) and postponed the decision to 7-8 February. The contradiction between the decades-old unsolved budgetary problems and the rapidly changing environment cannot be greater as it is now.

F. Breuss, "Effekte der österreichischen EU-Mitgliedschaft"
no. 018 , pp. 9 , Jan. 2013.

File:fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Policy_Briefs/18.PolicyBrief_Breuss.pdf

Abstract: Das Kernelement der Europäischen Integration, der „Binnenmarkt“, feiert heuer das 20-jährige Bestehen. Österreich hat seit dem Beitritt zur EU im Jahr 1995 an allen vertiefenden Schritten der EU-Integration teilgenommen. Nicht nur politisch ist Österreich durch die EU-Mitgliedschaft moderner, europäischer geworden, es hat auch ökonomisch auf allen Stufen der Integration profitiert: Ostöffnung (zusätzliches BIP-Wachstum +0,2 Prozentpunkte pro Jahr), EU-Mitgliedschaft (Teilnahme am EU-Binnenmarkt: +0,6 Prozentpunkte), WWU-Teilnahme (+0,4 Prozentpunkte) und EU-Erweiterung (+0,4 Prozentpunkte). Die aus Modellsimulationen abgeleiteten Integrationseffekte durch die Teilnahme an allen Integrationsstufen verstärkten das Wachstum des österreichischen BIP insgesamt um ½ bis 1 Prozentpunkt pro Jahr. Die Plausibilität dieser Modellergebnisse wird durch den Vergleich der Wirtschaftsentwicklung Österreichs mit anderen EU-Ländern und Drittländern unterstrichen. So entsprach der Wachstumsvorsprung Österreichs vor Deutschland und der Schweiz den genannten Integrationseffekten. Dieser „Wachstumsbonus“ ist ohne die Integrationswirkungen der Teilnahme Österreichs an allen EU-Projekten schwer bis gar nicht erklärbar.

Modeling the Effects of Free Trade Agreements between the EU and Canada, USA and Moldova/Georgia/Armenia on the Austrian Economy: Model Simulations for Trade Policy Analysis .
File:fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Studien_2012_13/03-PolicyNote-FrancoisPindyuk.pdf

Abstract: This study examines the economic impact on Austria of three possible new EU free trade agreements: (1) an EU-US agreement; (2) an EU-Canada agreement; and (3) an EUArmenia/Georgia/Moldova agreement. This is done with a computational model of the global economy. The trade agreements are modeled as a mix of preferential tariff reductions and reductions in non-tariff measures that affect both goods and services. The primary impact follows from NTM reduction rather than tariff reductions. Of the three agreements, a potential agreement with the US is by far the most important. This follows from the size of the US economy. The US accounts for roughly one-quarter of extra-EU Austrian exports. Overall, the combined impact of the FTAs studied is positive. Most of the impact follows from investment response. Productivity gains from NTM reduction mean a combination of increased national income, higher wages, and employment, and increased capital stocks for the Austrian economy.

J. F. Francois and O. Pindyuk, "Modeling the Effects of Free Trade Agreements between the EU and Canada, USA and Moldova/Georgia/Armenia on the Austrian Economy: Model Simulations for Trade Policy Analysis" ,
Jan. 2013. pp. 5.

File:fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Studien_2012_13/03-ResearchReport-FrancoisPindyuk.pdf

Abstract: This study examines the economic impact on Austria of three possible new EU free trade agreements: (1) an EU-US agreement; (2) an EU-Canada agreement; and (3) an EUArmenia/Georgia/Moldova agreement. This is done with a computational model of the global economy. The trade agreements are modeled as a mix of preferential tariff reductions and reductions in non-tariff measures that affect both goods and services. The primary impact follows from NTM reduction rather than tariff reductions. Of the three agreements, a potential agreement with the US is by far the most important. This follows from the size of the US economy. The US accounts for roughly one-quarter of extra-EU Austrian exports. Overall, the combined impact of the FTAs studied is positive. Most of the impact follows from investment response. Productivity gains from NTM reduction mean a combination of increased national income, higher wages, and employment, and increased capital stocks for the Austrian economy.

J. F. Francois and O. Pindyuk, "Modeling the Effects of Free Trade Agreements between the EU and Canada, USA and Moldova/Georgia/Armenia on the Austrian Economy: Model Simulations for Trade Policy Analysis" ,
Jan. 2013 , pp. 38.

Weblink:fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Studien_2012_13/03-PolicyNote-FrancoisPindyuk.pdf _blank
File:fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Studien_2012_13/03-ResearchReport-FrancoisPindyuk.pdf

Abstract: This study examines the economic impact on Austria of three possible new EU free trade agreements: (1) an EU-US agreement; (2) an EU-Canada agreement; and (3) an EUArmenia/Georgia/Moldova agreement. This is done with a computational model of the global economy. The trade agreements are modeled as a mix of preferential tariff reductions and reductions in non-tariff measures that affect both goods and services. The primary impact follows from NTM reduction rather than tariff reductions. Of the three agreements, a potential agreement with the US is by far the most important. This follows from the size of the US economy. The US accounts for roughly one-quarter of extra-EU Austrian exports. Overall, the combined impact of the FTAs studied is positive. Most of the impact follows from investment response. Productivity gains from NTM reduction mean a combination of increased national income, higher wages, and employment, and increased capital stocks for the Austrian economy.

M. Falk, "Determinants of Greenfield Investment in Knowledge Intensive Business Services" ,
Dec. 2012 , pp. 41.

Weblink:fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Studien_2012_13/02-PolicyNote-Falk.pdf _blank
File:fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Studien_2012_13/02-ResearchReport-Falk.pdf

Abstract: This study investigates the determinants of bilateral Greenfield FDI projects and flows in knowledge intensive business services from OECD/BRIC countries to the EU countries for the period 2003-2010. Greenfield FDI projects are distinguished by type of activity: (i) business services, (ii) design, development and testing activities, (iii) headquarters activities and (iv) R&D services. Another aim of this study is to provide new empirical evidence on the patterns of Greenfield investments in knowledge intensive business services over time, source country and destination country. For Austria, the number of Greenfield investments in headquarter functions remains stable over time whereas Greenfield investments in R&D and related activities declined during the sample period. The same holds true for the number of jobs generated through greenfield investments. The results using panel count data models show that wage costs, tertiary education, corporate taxes, having a common border and sharing a common language all play a significant role in determining bilateral Greenfield FDI projects in knowledge intensive services. However, the impact of corporate taxation and labour costs differs widely across the functions and does not play a role in Greenfield investments in R&D and development, design and testing services.

R. Stöllinger and Y. Wolfmayr, "FIW Kurzbericht Nr. 10"
no. 010 , pp. 7 , Dec. 2012.

File:fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Kurzbericht/10.Kurzbericht_Dezember_2012.pdf

Abstract: FIW publishes quarterly FIW Notes. They present an overview of the most important Austrian and international developments regarding international economics. There is only a German version available.

M. Falk, "Determinants of Greenfield Investment in Knowledge Intensive Business Services" ,
Dec. 2012. pp. 41.

File:fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Studien_2012_13/02-ExecutiveSummary-Falk.pdf

Abstract: This study investigates the determinants of bilateral Greenfield FDI projects and flows in knowledge intensive business services from OECD/BRIC countries to the EU countries for the period 2003-2010. Greenfield FDI projects are distinguished by type of activity: (i) business services, (ii) design, development and testing activities, (iii) headquarters activities and (iv) R&D services. Another aim of this study is to provide new empirical evidence on the patterns of Greenfield investments in knowledge intensive business services over time, source country and destination country. For Austria, the number of Greenfield investments in headquarter functions remains stable over time whereas Greenfield investments in R&D and related activities declined during the sample period. The same holds true for the number of jobs generated through greenfield investments. The results using panel count data models show that wage costs, tertiary education, corporate taxes, having a common border and sharing a common language all play a significant role in determining bilateral Greenfield FDI projects in knowledge intensive services. However, the impact of corporate taxation and labour costs differs widely across the functions and does not play a role in Greenfield investments in R&D and development, design and testing services.

Determinants of Greenfield Investment in Knowledge Intensive Business Services .
File:fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Studien_2012_13/02-PolicyNote-Falk.pdf

Abstract: This study investigates the determinants of bilateral Greenfield FDI projects and flows in knowledge intensive business services from OECD/BRIC countries to the EU countries for the period 2003-2010. Greenfield FDI projects are distinguished by type of activity: (i) business services, (ii) design, development and testing activities, (iii) headquarters activities and (iv) R&D services. Another aim of this study is to provide new empirical evidence on the patterns of Greenfield investments in knowledge intensive business services over time, source country and destination country. For Austria, the number of Greenfield investments in headquarter functions remains stable over time whereas Greenfield investments in R&D and related activities declined during the sample period. The same holds true for the number of jobs generated through greenfield investments. The results using panel count data models show that wage costs, tertiary education, corporate taxes, having a common border and sharing a common language all play a significant role in determining bilateral Greenfield FDI projects in knowledge intensive services. However, the impact of corporate taxation and labour costs differs widely across the functions and does not play a role in Greenfield investments in R&D and development, design and testing services.

M. Sanfilippo and G. Giovannetti, China’s competition and the export price strategies of developed countries.
Dec. 2012.

File:fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Working_Paper/N_102-GiovannettiSanfilippo.pdf

Abstract: This paper analyzes the impact of Chinese competition on developed countries export prices, with a focus on Italy. After a theoretical discussion of the channels affecting export prices in presence of competitors from low income countries, we estimate the pricing behavior of two major manufacturing sectors, consumer goods and machinery, distinguishing destination markets according to their income level. Results show that export competition from China has affected Italian price strategies over the period 2000-08, in an idiosyncratic way according to the income level of importers, sector and technology level of products exported. Contrary to what observed for other high-income countries, we find that Italy has followed a very specific strategy to face Chinese competition. Instead of changing “between sector”, moving up to the technology ladder, Italy has kept its specialization in traditional sectors and has upgraded the quality of its low-tech and laborintensive products, when in direct competition with Chinese ones. For higher technology products, on the other hand, it has adjusted prices downward to reduce Chinese competitive pressure, especially in segments where it does not hold a comparative advantage, while it has fostered differentiation only for some niche products within the sectors with higher specialization.