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The FIW - Research Centre International Economics (https://www.fiw.ac.at/) is a cooperation between the Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU), the University Vienna, the Johannes Kepler University Linz, the University of Innsbruck, WIFO, wiiw and WSR. FIW is supported by the Austrian Federal Ministries of Education, Research and Science (BMBFW) and of Labour and Economy (BMAW).

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The Brussels Effect 2.0 - Policy Note .
File:https://fiw.ac.at/fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Studien2022/FIW_PN_07_2022_Brussels-Effect.pdf

Abstract: The creation of uniform, legally binding norms and standards is an essential basis for the functioning of the EU single market, which at the same time is increasingly spread beyond the EU's borders through international trade relations. The shaping of global standards and regulations according to EU directives even beyond the EU's borders represents an important competitive advantage of the EU. The EU also manages to impose rules, regulations and standards only through market mechanisms in third countries without international treaties or agreements. This has in many areas contributed to the "Europeanisation" of important aspects of global trade. In the academic literature, this regulatory influence of the EU is defined as the "Brussels Effect". The focus of this study is to give a comprehensive overview of the Brussels Effect and to analyse the linkages regarding EU trade policy, outlining to what extent a Brussels Effect can be observed in the network of EU trade agreements. Based on a comprehensive and broad identification of the Brussels Effect, this study aims to quantify the trade effects in terms of the leading role in shaping global standards and regulations for the EU and Austria and to qualitatively identify further areas in which untapped potentials of a "Brussels Effect 2.0" seem possible in the context of EU trade policy.

Lieferkettenverantwortung in Österreich (Policy Note) .
File:https://fiw.ac.at/fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Studien2022/FIW_PN_05_2022_Lieferkettenverantwortung.pdf

Abstract: Die Studie analysiert die Verantwortung von Unternehmen für Menschenrechts- und Umweltthemen entlang ihrer Lieferketten. Neben einer Darstellung der historischen Entwicklung des „Due Diligence“-Begriffs und seiner Anwendung auf Menschenrechtsthemen wird insbesondere auf bestehende und geplante Lieferkettengesetze eingegangen, darunter jene in Deutschland, Frankreich, den Niederlanden, Norwegen, der Schweiz, USA (Kalifornien), dem Vereinigtes Königreich und auf EU-Ebene. Diese Regulierungen sind teilweise schon jetzt für österreichische Unternehmen relevant, auf EU-Ebene ist ein Richtlinienentwurf der Kommission in Ausarbeitung. Davon wären zwar lediglich 0,06 % aller österreichischen Unternehmen direkt betroffen, indirekt trifft es aber wesentlich mehr Unternehmen, v.a. Lieferanten größerer, direkt betroffener, Unternehmen. Die Studienergebnisse zeigen eine wesentliche Sensibilisierung der Unternehmen für Menschenrechts- und Umweltthemen durch Lieferkettengesetze, gleichzeitig stellen die uneinheitlichen Regulierungen innerhalb der EU Unternehmen vor große Herausforderungen. Eine entsprechende EU-weite Harmonisierung der Lieferkettenregulierung hat das Potenzial, ein level playing field für Unternehmen zu schaffen und die Komplexität zu reduzieren.

Lieferkettenverantwortung und Blockchain - Policy Note .
File:https://fiw.ac.at/fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Studien2022/FIW_PN_06_2022_Blockchain.pdf

Abstract: Die Studie untersucht die Potenziale und Herausforderungen von modernen Technologien im Bereich Lieferkettenverantwortung, mit einem besonderen Fokus auf Blockchains. Derartige Technologien bieten Dank der Dezentralität und der zugrundeliegenden kryptographischen Verfahren die Möglichkeiten, die entlang der Lieferkette anfallenden Informationen transparent, nachvollziehbar und unveränderbar zu speichern. Die mögliche Automatisierung von Prozessen erleichtert die Einhaltung der Lieferkettenverantwortung weiter. Gleichzeitig gibt es Herausforderungen, etwa bei den Datenschnittstellen und der Interoperabilität unterschiedlicher Lösungen. Hier könnten einheitliche Standards Abhilfe schaffen. In Österreich gibt es aktuell erst wenige Unternehmen, die sich erfolgreich mit dem Einsatz von Blockchain-Technologie im Bereich Lieferketten beschäftigen. Die Unterstützung von Unternehmen insbes. KMU) bei der Durchführung von Blockchain-Projekten könnte für Österreich Standort- und für die Unternehmen „Early Mover“-Vorteile generieren.

[Deutsch/German] Ein Überblick über Charakteristika und Dynamik exportierender Unternehmen in Österreich .
File:https://fiw.ac.at/fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Studien2022/FIW_PN_02_2022_Austrian_exporting_firms.pdf

Abstract: Angesichts der Bedeutung der Exportwirtschaft für Österreich werden in dieser Studie die Rolle und die Merkmale österreichischer exportierender Unternehmen im Vergleich zu nicht-exportierenden Unternehmen untersucht. Konkret wird untersucht, wie sich der Anteil der exportierenden Unternehmen in den letzten Jahren entwickelt hat, ob der Export für die Unternehmen im Laufe der Zeit an Bedeutung gewonnen hat und inwieweit Exporteure einen Vorteil gegenüber anderen Unternehmen haben (Exportprämie). Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass etwa zwei Drittel der österreichischen Industrieunternehmen im Export tätig sind und weisen darauf hin, dass – in Übereinstimmung mit der bestehenden Literatur – exportierende Unternehmen größer und produktiver sind, höhere Überschüsse erwirtschaften, mehr investieren und mehr für den Umweltschutz ausgeben als Nichtexporteure. Weiters zeigen die Ergebnisse, dass nur eine kleine Anzahl von Unternehmen einen großen Anteil an den Exporten der verarbeitenden Industrie hat. Schließlich deuten die Ergebnisse auf eine wechselseitige positive Beziehung zwischen Exportverhalten, Produktivität und F&E-Ausgaben hin.

The EU Services Directive: Untapped Potentials of Trade in Services - Policy Note .
File:https://fiw.ac.at/fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Studien2022/FIW_PN_03_2022_EU_Services_Directive.pdf

Abstract: The biggest reform step to date in the liberalisation and deepening of the EU internal market for services was taken with the EU Services Directive. Its implementation intended to provide a clear impetus for the removal of existing obstacles to the free movement of services, the freedom of establishment of services providers and for administrative simplification. The project quantifies the Directive's effects on Austrian and EU services trade and welfare but also highlights untapped potentials due to remaining administrative barriers and existing weaknesses in the implementation and enforcement of the Single Market rules. The estimation relies on a structural gravity model estimated on a disaggregated industry level.

Förderung innovativer Umwelttechnologien in Österreich durch ausländische Direktinvestitionen .
File:https://fiw.ac.at/fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Studien2022/FIW_PN_01_2022_Determinants_and_Effects_of_FDI_in_Austria.pdf

Abstract: Diese Studie untersucht die Determinanten ausländischer Direktinvestitionen (ADI) in Öster-reich und deren Auswirkungen auf innovative Technologien, Produktivität und Beschäfti-gung für den Zeitraum 2008-2018 anhand von Unternehmensdaten. Geringere Handelskos-ten steigern die ausländischen Direktinvestitionen in Österreich. Ausländische Direktinvestiti-onen werden vor allem in Branchen getätigt, die durch eine höhere Kapitalintensität, hö-here Löhne, eine stärkere Agglomeration und regionale Konzentration gekennzeichnet sind. Darüber hinaus werden mehr ausländische Direktinvestitionen in Regionen mit höhe-ren BIP und einem größeren Anteil der Bevölkerung mit höheren Bildungsabschlüssen getä-tigt. Die Studie kommt auch zu dem Ergebnis, dass es positive Spillover-Effekte von auslän-dischen Direktinvestitionen auf die heimische Wirtschaft gibt, die bei Innovationen im Be-reich der Umwelttechnologien am stärksten sind. Dies deutet darauf hin, dass ausländische Direktinvestitionen neuartige Innovationen im Bereich der Umwelttechnologie fördern und damit österreichischen Unternehmen helfen, zukunftsweisende Umwelttechnologien zu ent-wickeln. Auf Unternehmensebene werden derartige Innovationsanstrengungen am besten durch Förderung der Gesamtaktiva und Investitionen inländischer Unternehmen gestützt, und auf regionaler Ebene durch Erhöhung des Anteils der Bevölkerung mit höherem Bil-dungsniveau und der Beschäftigung von mehr F&E-Personal. Die aktive Präsenz innovati-ver ausländischer multinationaler Unternehmen, die über umfangreiche technologische Kapazitäten, hochqualifizierte Arbeitskräfte, erfahrenes Management und umfangreiche Ressourcen verfügen, ist damit besonders förderlich für Innovationen.

Transportkostenwahrheit im internationalen Handel .
File:fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Studien_2021/FIW_PN_Transportkostenwahrheit_im_internationalen_Handel_03_2021.pdf

Abstract: Mit dem Warentransport sind zahlreiche negative externe Effekte verbunden. Aufgrund eines Marktversagens werden zu viele Güter über weite Strecken transportiert. Maßnahmen zur Internalisierung, wie die Einführung von Auflagen, Verboten sowie Steuern, Abgaben und handelbaren Zertifikaten, zielen darauf ab, die externen Kosten zu berücksichtigen. In einigen Bereichen werden solche Eingriffe jedoch unterlassen. Eine umfassende Literatur-recherche zeigt, dass die mit dem Warentransport verbundenen externen Kosten nur teilweise internalisiert und somit preiswirksam sind. Mittels eines quantitativen Modells wird in einer Szenarioanalyse untersucht, wie sich eine Internalisierung der externen Kosten von Handelsaktivitäten in Form eines Preisaufschlags auswirken würde. Wie die Ergebnisse zei-gen, könnte die Umsetzung von Transportkostenwahrheit im Extra-EU-Handel mit einer leichten Steigerung des realen Bruttoinlandsproduktes und der Beschäftigung in der EU einher-gehen, sofern die Einnahmen dieser Handelsaufschläge wieder in den Wirtschaftskreislauf zurückgeführt werden. Die Analyse benennt Handlungsoptionen zur Herstellung von Transportkostenwahrheit im internationalen Handel.

Grünes Licht für den EU-CO2-Grenzausgleichsmechanismus .
Weblink:https://fiw.ac.at/fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Studien_2021/FIW_PN_05_2021_CBAM.pdf _blank
File:fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Studien_2021/FIW_PN_05_2021_CBAM.pdf

Abstract: As the European carbon border adjustment (CBA) mechanism is high up on the European Commission’s agenda and soon to be implemented, it is important to understand the economic and environmental implications of alternative designs of such a mechanism. To this end and with a view to informing the decision-making process, this study analyses and compares a series of alternative scenarios, which differ along several dimensions of a po-tential CBA mechanism. Two main scenarios are defined: the first one is labelled ‘future ETS price scenario', which assumes a carbon price of EUR 44 and a continuation of the current practice of free allowances; the other is labelled ‘IMF carbon tax scenario’ and assumes a carbon price of EUR 67, which is taken from a recent publication by the IMF, and that free allowances in the industries by the CBA mechanism are abandoned. The scenario analyses rely on the multi-sector quantitative trade model by Larch and Wanner (2017) for trade and on the quantitative FDI model by Anderson et al. (2019). Overall, we find relatively small effects on EU exports, GDP and CO2 emissions. These small quantitative changes at the aggregate, however, mask larger changes at the sectoral level. As expected, the CBA mechanism is more effective when designed in a comprehensive manner, including export rebates in addition to carbon border taxes. The greater economic and environmental effectiveness of such a comprehensive design must be weighed against a heightened legal risk and fiercer opposition by developing countries which perceive the CBA mechanism as ‘green protectionism’ in disguise.

Global Value Chains: Implications for the Austrian economy .
File:fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Studien_2014/03_Kulmer_Policy_Note_german.pdf

Abstract: This study focuses on the implications of rising global value chains (GVCs) on international trade and analysis the impacts on small open economies. Small open economies rely heavily on international trade and are highly integrated in global production networks but have so far been hardly considered in the literature. On the example of Austria, an industrialized small open economy in central Europe, we addressed the role of small open economies in a globalized economy. Based on the WIOD database we apply network analysis and use GVC as well as competiveness indicators to measure the associated risks as well as benefits. Findings imply for Austria a sharp turn in the focus of trade policy away from the traditional gross trade perspective. Austria’s competitiveness has been strengthened considerably via the participation in GVCs since resource and endowment constraints have been overcoming easier and foreign inputs are used in the production processes efficiently enabling vast economies of scale. Results also reveal that the promotion of service oriented activities which are a main source of the domestic value added content in manufacturing exports is of key importance for Austria’s competitiveness on the global market. In particular we found a mutual integration of EU enlargement countries of 2004 and Austria: Austria’s intermediate exports are mainly characterized by high knowledge- and service-intensive manufacturing goods, while the EU enlargement countries of 2004 specialize in low-skilled employment and less knowledge intensive services.

The Central European Manufacturing Core: What is Driving Regional Production Sharing? .
File:fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Studien_2014/Studien_2014_adapted_file_names_stoellinger/02_Stoellinger_Deutsche Policy Note_The_Central_European_Manufacturing_Core_What_is_Driving_Regional_Production_Sharing.pdf

Abstract: There is evidence that Europe’s manufacturing activity is increasingly concentrated in a Central European (CE) core which the IMF in a recent publication also refers to as the German-Central European supply chain. This CE manufacturing core is dominated by Germany and in addition comprises Austria and the four Visegrád countries (the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary and Poland). The case of Austria is particularly interesting because it is neither the primary technology leader within the country group, nor is it an offshoring destination and therefore takes an intermediate position. This study provides further empirical evidence for the growing concentration of European industrial production in the CE manufacturing core and explores in detail the structure and development of the regional supply chains over the period 1995-2011. This includes an analysis of the impact of international production integration on the value added share of manufacturing in the economy. The econometric results point towards differentiated effects for the members of the CE manufacturing core and the remaining EU Member States. Focusing on value added generated by the manufacturing sector, the industries which build the backbone of this regional manufacturing cluster are identified. Finally, the report investigates which factors are conducive to the intensification of international production sharing. In line with the notion of a production-investment-services nexus, it is found that (inward) FDI in the manufacturing sector is associated with higher degrees of production integration. Again, the econometric evidence suggests that some of the factors explaining international production sharing, such as the level of export sophistication, have differentiated effects for the members of the CE manufacturing core as compared to the other EU countries.

Analyse der österreichischen Handelsbilanz .
File:fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Studien_2013_2014/03_EdererSchiman_PolicyNote.pdf

Abstract: Die vorliegende Analyse der österreichischen Warenverkehrsbilanz diskutiert sowohl die zeitliche Entwicklung der Handelsbilanz und ihre zugrundeliegenden Faktoren als auch die bilateralen Bilanzen mit den wichtigsten Handelspartnern und die Handelsbilanz in ausgewählten Warengruppen. Mit ökonometrischen Verfahren werden kurz- und langfristige Effekte identifiziert und die strukturelle Komponente der Handelsbilanz geschätzt. Zudem wird der Einfluss der Finanzmarkt- und Wirtschaftskrise auf die Warenverkehrsbilanz ermittelt. In einem internationalen Vergleich werden Parallelen und Unterschiede zur deutschen und zur Schweizer Handelsbilanz gezeigt.

Positioning Austria in the Global Economy: Value Added Trade, International Production Sharing and Global Linkages .
File:fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Studien_2013_2014/02_StehrerStoellinger_PolicyBrief.pdf

Abstract: This study investigates Austria’s positions in international production sharing and global value chains exploiting the recently available Global Input-Output Database (WIOD). Researchers and policy-makers become increasingly aware of the fact that production processes are more and more organised internationally, which implies that indicators based e.g. on gross export values become less meaningful as part of this value is made of imported intermediates. As such, statistics and indicators based on a value added rather than gross trade basis and emphasis on the actual (domestic) value added creation due to exports are needed for policy-makers and researchers to draw a more accurate picture of the link between trade and value added creation and the implications thereof. Making use of indicators for measuring different aspects of complex production relations established in the literature such as the degree of vertical specialisation, value added trade and global value chain income, we find that Austria has intensified its participation in international production sharing since 1995 as evidenced, e.g., by the substantial increase in its vertical specialisation index. Tight supplier-customer relationships, above all in medium-high- and high-technology-intensive manufacturing industries, with Germany and increasingly with the neighbouring CEEC economies have contributed strongly to this development. However, international production sharing is also inextricably linked to ‘employment sharing’, meaning that in the presence of vertical specialisation not all jobs related to Austrian exports are also located in Austria. In fact, if based on the individual countries’ labour productivities, Austrian exports embody more foreign than domestic jobs due to significantly lower productivity levels in some of the partner countries. Nevertheless, the development of Austrian exports has been very dynamic over the past decade as manifested for example in a trade surplus since the early 2000s. A counterfactual exercise that compares the actual amount of domestic jobs embodied in Austrian exports with the hypothetical amount of jobs that would be needed to produce Austria’s imports domestically suggests that foreign trade has a positive employment impact in Austria amounting to some 90,000 jobs in 2009 – a result that is closely linked to Austria’s trade balance surplus. The strong export performance of Austria is also revealed by the rising share in total EU value added exports which exceeded 3% in 2011, though this is sometimes masked by the fact that the share in global value added exports declined slightly between 1995 and 2011 as a result of new important players in the arena of international trade, above all China. Finally, analysing the trade slump of the year 2009 we find that ‘re-shoring’ activities of Austrian firms as well as the so-called ‘composition effect’ contributed to the crisis-related decline of Austrian exports.

Pattern, Determinants and Dynamics of Austrian Service Exports – A Firmlevel Analysis .
File:fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Studien_2012_13/05-PolicyNotet-ChristenPfaffermayrWolfmayr.pdf

Abstract: Most firm-level research on the characteristics and strategies of globalized firms focuses on manufacturing industries while firm-level evidence on trade in services is still rare and has just recently begun to emerge. This study uses an unique dataset of Austrian service exporting firms over a four-year period to add to this literature. We show that service export participation is very low and highly concentrated among a few firms and that service exporters are on average larger and more productive than non-exporters. We also find that firm productivity increases with the number of export markets served. The detailed analysis on the export premium suggests the self-selection of firms as well as learning effects from exporting for export starters. The dynamic analysis reveals that the rate of export exits is high for export starters in the first year of exporting, especially for firms of small size. Movements into and out of exporting are however less frequent than moving in and out of individual markets. Entry and exit of markets (extensive margin) is an important component of overall export flows, especially for less popular markets, overall, however the intensive margin of trade contributes most. Analysis based on a Heckman sample selection specification including firm characteristics as well as the standard gravity variables on geographical characteristics of destination markets confirm this finding. In particular, distance to the destination market, firm productivity as well as destination market characteristics (market size, policy environment) significantly influence the probability of exporting but even more so the volume of service trade flows. Results from the counterfactual analysis suggest that export market growth and policy reforms produce the relative strongest impact on the entry into new markets. Hence, this decomposition of overall export growth into contributions attributable to the extensive and intensive margin allow for new insights for economic policy.

The Effects of Production Offshoring on R&D and Innovation in the Home Country .
File:fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Studien_2013_2014/01_DachsEbersberger_PolicyNote.pdf

Abstract: A strong innovation performance based on R&D, product development and the implementation of advanced production technologies is key for the long-term competitiveness of European economies. This study investigates the effects of production offshoring on R&D and innovation activities of the firm in the home country. The analysis is based on a dataset of more than 3000 manufacturing firms from seven European countries. We employ propensity score matching to compare R&D and innovation activities of firms which have offshored production activities in a previous period to a control group of non-offshoring firms. The analysis finds no negative effect of production offshoring on innovation and technological capabilities of firms in the home country. On contrary, offshoring firms spend significantly more on R&D or product design, and invest more in process innovation than non-offshoring firms. These results support a view on internationalisation of firms that regards offshoring as a strategy of international expansion, and not a passive reaction of firms to a loss of their competitiveness. Our results indicate that this expansion goes hand in hand with innovation and process modernization at home.

International Trade of Bio-Energy Products – Economic Potentials for Austria .
File:fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Studien_2012_13/04-PolicyNote-KolandSchoenhartSchmid.pdf

Abstract: TTRIOPOL studies the role of domestic bioenergy potentials for agriculture, the wider economy and international trade for Austria. In particular, agricultural biomass pro-duction can contribute to significant shares of energy provision in Austria. A detailed scenario is developed to explore the opportunities and challenges of enhanced domestic biomass production based on short rotation forestry (SRF) for heat supply which is currently among the most competitive technologies. To that end, TRIOPOL establishes a model linkage between a sectoral supply-model for Austrian agriculture and a national small open economy general equilibrium model. Model results show that a biomass premium of 65 € per ton dry matter is required to support 250,000 ha of SRF on cropland in Austria by 2020. The thus provided bioheat covers some 33 petajoule (PJ) heat energy demand in Austria; taking into account the likely rising of energy prices by 2020, this number rises to 47 PJ. Substantial land use changes may also be compensated by increases in land use intensity and as well as changes in imports and exports. Scenario results suggest that domestic food production of non-meat commodities falls by 1.3%. The sector meat products profits from the high competitiveness of Austrian livestock production and responds by a slight increase in net exports. The results of the quantitative analysis shall support the scientific and political debate on securing food and energy supply as well as economic development goals.

Modeling the Effects of Free Trade Agreements between the EU and Canada, USA and Moldova/Georgia/Armenia on the Austrian Economy: Model Simulations for Trade Policy Analysis .
File:fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Studien_2012_13/03-PolicyNote-FrancoisPindyuk.pdf

Abstract: This study examines the economic impact on Austria of three possible new EU free trade agreements: (1) an EU-US agreement; (2) an EU-Canada agreement; and (3) an EUArmenia/Georgia/Moldova agreement. This is done with a computational model of the global economy. The trade agreements are modeled as a mix of preferential tariff reductions and reductions in non-tariff measures that affect both goods and services. The primary impact follows from NTM reduction rather than tariff reductions. Of the three agreements, a potential agreement with the US is by far the most important. This follows from the size of the US economy. The US accounts for roughly one-quarter of extra-EU Austrian exports. Overall, the combined impact of the FTAs studied is positive. Most of the impact follows from investment response. Productivity gains from NTM reduction mean a combination of increased national income, higher wages, and employment, and increased capital stocks for the Austrian economy.

Determinants of Greenfield Investment in Knowledge Intensive Business Services .
File:fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Studien_2012_13/02-PolicyNote-Falk.pdf

Abstract: This study investigates the determinants of bilateral Greenfield FDI projects and flows in knowledge intensive business services from OECD/BRIC countries to the EU countries for the period 2003-2010. Greenfield FDI projects are distinguished by type of activity: (i) business services, (ii) design, development and testing activities, (iii) headquarters activities and (iv) R&D services. Another aim of this study is to provide new empirical evidence on the patterns of Greenfield investments in knowledge intensive business services over time, source country and destination country. For Austria, the number of Greenfield investments in headquarter functions remains stable over time whereas Greenfield investments in R&D and related activities declined during the sample period. The same holds true for the number of jobs generated through greenfield investments. The results using panel count data models show that wage costs, tertiary education, corporate taxes, having a common border and sharing a common language all play a significant role in determining bilateral Greenfield FDI projects in knowledge intensive services. However, the impact of corporate taxation and labour costs differs widely across the functions and does not play a role in Greenfield investments in R&D and development, design and testing services.

Foreign Trade and FDI in the Austrian Regions – A new methodology to estimate regional trade and an analysis of the crisis effects .
File:fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Studien_2012_13/01-PolicyNote-Roemisch.pdf

Abstract: Foreign trade and foreign direct investments (FDI) are key elements for economic development and growth of both a country and its regions. This paper focuses on foreign trade and FDI in Austrian regions (Bundesländer). Unfortunately, data on regional trade in Austria is only available on a very limited basis. The aim of this study is to develop new methodologies for the estimation of exports and imports of Austrian regions and analyse the data generated by this methodology. The basic idea is to disaggregate national foreign trade data to the regional level by using national input-output, regional employment and other supplemental data. This allows estimating Austrian regional foreign trade for the years 1999 to 2009. The study shows a large variation in trade among regions. Lower Austria, Upper Austria, Styria and Vorarlberg are the regions with the highest export share. The importance of regional trade increases between 1999 and 2008; the crisis in 2009 had a strong negative impact. Furthermore, the competitiveness of regions differs considerably. Only three regions, Upper Austria, Styria and Vorarlberg, show trade surplus.

Structural Estimation of Gravity Models with Path-Dependent Market Entry .
File:fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Studienpool_II/07.PolicyNote.Egger_Pfaffermayr.Gravity Models.pdf

Abstract: This paper develops a structural empirical general equilibrium model of aggregate bilateral trade with path dependence of country-pair level exporter status. Such path dependence is motivated through informational costs about serving a foreign market for first-time entry of (firms in) an export market versus continued export services to that market. We embed the theoretical model into a structural dynamic stochastic econometric model of bilateral selection into import markets and apply it to a data-set of aggregate bilateral exports among 120 countries over the period 1995-2004. In particular, we disentangle the role of changes in trade costs, in labor endowments, and in total factor productivity for trade, bilateral market entry, numbers of firms active, and welfare. Dynamic gains from trade differ significantly from static ones, and path-dependence in market entry cushions effects of impulses in fundamental variables that are detrimental to bilateral trade.

Model Simulations for Trade Policy Analysis: the impact of potential trade agreements on Austria .
File:fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Studienpool_II/05.PolicyNote.Francois_Pindyuk.Model Simulations for Trade Policy Analysis.pdf

Abstract: In this paper, we examine possible medium-term changes in EU trade policy, including the negotiation and implementation of Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) with regional entities like ASEAN and the NAFTA countries. We also examine the possible conclusion of the Doha Round of multilateral trade negotiations. Such changes in policy at the regional and global level imply changes in trade policy and industrial structure that affect Austria as part of the network of European industry. To accomplish this, we work with a computable general equilibrium model (CGE) of the Austrian economy and its major global trading partners. This model is benchmarked to 2020 macroeconomic projections. The modeling scenarios are based on a mix of tariff reductions for goods and non-tariff barriers (NTB) reductions for services. The services liberalization scenario is based on protection with an “actionability” assumption. The results include estimated changes in GDP, welfare, as well as in the value added contained in Austrian exports. The focus on value added provides important insight to the overall impact on the Austrian economy. In all policy cases examined, the striking messages is the importance of high technology services (ICT and other business services) to the total growth in Austrian exports, on a value added basis. This reflects both the high value added content of trade in this sector, and the apparent comparative advantage of Austria in this sector in the 2020 baseline.

Austrian Linkages to the European Economy and the Transmission Mechanisms of Economic Crisis .
File:fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Studienpool_II/06.PolicyNote.Francois_Holzner_Pindyuk.Austrian Linkages to the European Economy.pdf

Abstract: Like most of the global economy, Austria suffered from recession in 2008-2009. In this paper we deconstruct the pattern of recession, and the transmission of the global recession to Austria’s economy. We provide a new a new breakdown of the value added in Austrian exports, tracing both upstream and downstream linkages and their role in the recession. We also employ a multi-region computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, focused on Austria and its major trading partners. We estimate the combined impacts of the crisis, as implemented through stylized shocks to investment and household demand across major trading partners. These are based on the actual global demand shocks that occurred in 2008-2009. As we are focused on recession, we work with a short-run version of the model, where labor markers are modeled with unemployment and sticky wages, and where industry structure (number of varieties and allocation of capital stock across industries) is fixed. We introduce demand shocks (changes) to global investment demand calibrated from actual investment demand changes during the recession. We also calibrate output shocks based on actual changes in GDP in this period. The focus on backward and forward linkages provides new insight into the transmission channels for focused demand shocks at the border into more diffuse shocks within the broader Austrian economy. While the drop in global demand during the recent recession was focused on sectors producing heavy investment goods, the actual pressure this placed on the Austrian economy also hinged on the linkages of these sectors to other elements of the Austrian economy.

Macroeconomic Aspects of European Integration: Fiscal Policy, Trade Integration and the European Business Cycle .
File:fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Studienpool_II/04.PolicyNote.Crespo-Cuaresma_Pfaffermayr.Macroeconomic Aspects of European Integration.pdf

Abstract: We analyze the role of fiscal policy and intra-European trade in business cycle synchronization in the EU for the period 1995-2008. There is a broad consensus that the relationship between fiscal policy and business cycle comovements and between trade integration and cyclical synchronization are subject to endogeneity problems. We instrument fiscal budget surplus by means of (exogenous) political determinants of fiscal policy acknowledged by the literature, while trade integration is instrumented using covariates which summarize the integration status of countries in the sample, GDP per capita differences with respect to the EU and trade specialization within the EU framework. Our results show that both fiscal policy and trade integration are important determinants of cyclical synchronization. We can conclude that once a high degree of trade integration is reached by countries involved in the European integration process, the role of fiscal policy is particularly relevant and differences in fiscal shocks should be analyzed in detail as a source of coherence in cyclical comovements in Europe. Furthermore, fiscal deficits are shown to be an important potential source of idiosyncratic macroeconomic fluctuations, especially in the eurozone. Our results confirm the rationale of monitoring fiscal developments to assess the adequacy of potential future EMU countries and the need for a broad agreement concerning fiscal policy at the EU level.

Vulnerability and Bargaining Power in EU-Russia Gas Relations .
File:fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Studienpool_II/03.PolicyNote.Christie_etal.Vulnerability and Bargaining Power in EU-Russia Gas Relations.pdf

Abstract: This report contains three separate papers, each addressing selected issues concerning natural gas policy and security of gas supply in Europe. The over-arching themes are vulnerability (to supply disruptions, to supplier pricing power) and fragmentation; and measures designed to overcome them, namely interconnection and consolidation of bargaining power. The first paper contains a review of some of the economic effects of, and subsequent policy reactions to, the January 2009 cut of Russian gas supplies through the Ukraine Corridor, with a particular focus on Bulgaria and on EU policy. The second paper provides an analysis of the current state of gas relations between Ukraine and the Russian Federation, with a focus on the Ukrainian perspective and on recent political developments in that country. The third paper provides an analysis of the case for consolidating buyer power in line with the concept of an EU Gas Purchasing Agency.

A Land Far Away - Policy Note .
File:fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Studienpool_II/Studien_2010_adapted_file_names/02.Policy Note.Grohall.Yegorov.A_Land_Far_Away.pdf

Abstract: What goods to export and where to sell them? Our research was pursuing these two major goals. The first one is related to detecting countries where Austria has good perspectives for boosting its export. The basic idea was to use macroeconomic data set detecting the significant variables. We found that besides the GDP of importer and distance, there are more important variables like being landlocked, language, inflation, and so forth. We found recent GDP growth rate to be non-significant in more than just the very basic models. Taking all explanatory variables into account we could calculate the country-effects, telling us how Austrian exporters are under or over-represented within each country. It is argued that exporters could put additional efforts into quickly growing countries where Austria is still under-represented. The second goal was a more detailed view on the role of transport costs. Gravity model was shown to be correct and robust (even for a class of functions of distance). The detailed accounting for transport costs requires consideration of different transport modes and ratios of value to weight. Distance suppresses trade of cheap goods most, suggesting that Austria has no disadvantage in export of high-tech goods (like pharmaceutics and complex machines) over long distances. In particular, pharmaceutical sector has growing potential and trade with Russia is one of its perspectives.

Modell basierte Analyse von Wasserströmen im internationalen Handel von Agrarprodukten .
File:fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Studienpool_II/01.PolicyNote.Treitler.Berrer.Wasserströme_internationaler Handel.pdf

Abstract: The amount of water embodied in Austrian imports of selected agricultural products is quantified. These imports are analysed by a dynamic model that is based on the water footprint concept. The model quantifies the water savings potential using a database including more than 200 countries and regions. Austria could save up to 28% of the water embodied in coffee by substituting the current coffee imports from water inefficient countries by efficiently produced coffee. The water savings potential from wheat imports amounts to 22% that from orange imports equals almost 20% of the current amount of embodied water. We calculate a global water value equal to € 0.013 per cubic meter of water. The international trade of coffee, wheat and oranges trades embodied water equal to € 51.6 billions per year with a share of 92.6% (€ 47.8 billions) traded at commodity exchanges.