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Der Forschungsschwerpunkt Internationale Wirtschaft (FIW) (undefinedhttps://www.fiw.ac.at/) ist eine Kooperation zwischen der Wirtschaftsuniversität Wien (WU), der Universität Wien, der Johannes Kepler Universität Linz und der Universität Innsbruck, WIFO, wiiw und WSR. FIW wird von den Bundesministerien BMBFW und BMDW unterstützt.

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H. Oberhofer, M. Pfaffermayr and Y. Wolfmayr, "Die Auswirkungen des Brexit auf Österreichs Wirtschaft" ,
Jan. 2021 , pp. 57.

Datei:fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Studien_2021/FIW_RR_DIe_Auswirkungen_des_Brexit_auf_Oesterreichs_Wirtschaft_01_2021_final.pdf

Abstract: Diese Studie liefert ein Update zu den 2017 berechneten Handels- und Wohlfahrtseffekten des Brexit für die österreichische und die britische Wirtschaft ("Estimating the Trade and Welfare Effects of Brexit. A Panel Data Structural Gravity Model"). Die Schätzung erfolgt mit einem strukturellen Gravitationsmodell auf disaggregiertem Branchenniveau. Die Studie vergleicht die ökonomischen Folgen des am 24. Dezember 2020 vereinbarten Freihandelsabkommens zwischen der EU und dem Vereinigten Königreich mit den Handels- und Wohlfahrtseffekten aus einem ungeregelten Ausscheiden des Vereinigten Königreichs. Demnach dämpft das Freihandelsabkommen die negativen bilateralen Handelseffekte, kompensiert sie jedoch nicht vollständig. Das Vereinigte Königreich ist vom Ausscheiden deutlich stärker als Österreich betroffen. Die größten negativen Handelseffekte zeigen sich für den Agrarsektor sowie in der für den bilateralen Handel wichtigen Kfz-Branche.

J. Grübler, R. Stöllinger and G. Tondl, "Wanted! Free Trade Agreements in the Service of Environmental and Climate Protection" ,
Jan. 2021 , pp. 97.

Weblink:https://www.fiw.ac.at/fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Studien_2021/FIW_Research_Report_FTA_Environment_PolicyBrief.pdf
Datei:fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Studien_2021/FIW_Research_Report_FTA_Environment_FINAL.pdf

Abstract: The effects of international trade on the planet’s climate and environment are manifold and complex. This makes assessment of the impact of free trade agreements (FTAs) a delicate matter. This study provides an overview of the development of sustainability chapters in FTAs and discusses their potential and limitations. It highlights particular industry-specific environmental issues related to EU trade, especially with developing countries, and presents complementary policy options. In this vein, it zooms in on the EU-Mercosur FTA, for which a political agreement was reached in June 2019. It contrasts the estimated cost of increased CO2 emissions attributable to intensified trade relations, as one element of the ‘pains from trade’, with the estimated ‘gains from trade’ arising from lower prices for consumers. The analysis suggests that the benefits outweigh the costs; yet, the result is sensitive to assumed prices for pollutants. Furthermore, the effectiveness of the incorporated sustainability chapter is limited by its enforceability. The latter provokes a discussion on the modernisation of the framework of the World Trade Organization, which currently does not allow environmental challenges to be tackled effectively.

A. Reinstaller and K. S. Friesenbichler, "“Better Exports” ¬ Technologie-, Qualitätsaspekte und In-novation des österreichischen Außenhandels im Kontext der Digitalisierung" ,
Sep. 2020 , pp. 112.

Weblink:https://fiw.ac.at/fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Studien_2020/FIW_PolicyNote_Better_Export_Reinstaller_Friesenbichler_09_2020.pdf _blank
Datei:fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Studien_2020/FIW_RR_Better_Export_Reinstaller_Friesenbichler_09_2020.pdf

Abstract: Die Studie präsentiert eine langfristige Analyse der österreichischen Warenexporte seit der 2000. Nach einer stark expansiven Phase zwischen 2000 und 2008 verlor demnach Öster-reichs Exportwirtschaft seit der Finanzmarkt- und Wirtschaftskrise 2008/09 Marktanteile und Alleinstellungsmerkmale im Welthandel. Die Wettbewerbsintensität nahm zu, und österrei-chische Exporteure konzentrieren sich zunehmend auf den Export von Waren, für die sie über hohe Spezialisierungsvorteile verfügen. Aufgrund dieser Beobachtung werden Heraus-forderungen für die Außenwirtschaftspolitik und wirtschaftspolitische Ansatzpunkte im Kon-text der Außenwirtschaftsstrategie identifiziert und diskutiert.

J. Grübler and O. Reiter, "Greater than the sum of its parts? Does Austria profit from a widening network of EU free trade agreements?" ,
Sep. 2020 , pp. 46.

Weblink:https://www.fiw.ac.at/fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Studien_2020/FIW_Research_Report_Network_effects_Policy_Note.pdf
Datei:https://www.fiw.ac.at/fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Studien_2020/FIW_Research_Report_Network_effects_Report.pdf

Abstract: Political debates and economic analyses often focus on single free trade agreements and their potential economic effects on participating trading partners. This study contributes to the literature by shedding light on the significance of trade agreements in the context of countries’ positions in worldwide trade agreement networks, by combining network theory with gravity trade modelling. We illustrate, both numerically and graphically, the evolution of the global web of trade agreements in general, and the network of the European Union specifically, accounting for the geographical and temporal change in the depth of agreements implemented. Gravity estimations for the period 1995-2017 distinguish the direct bilateral effects of trade agreements from indirect effects attributable to the scope of trade networks and countries’ positions therein.

F. Sinabell, J. Grübler and O. Reiter, "Implications of the EU-Mercosur Association Agreement for Austria - A Preliminary Assessment" ,
Aug. 2020 , pp. 79.

Datei:fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Studien_2020/FIW_Research_Report_Implications_of_the_EU_Mercosur_Association_Agreement.pdf

Abstract: This study presents quantitative and qualitative assessments of potential consequences of the trade agreement between the EU and Mercosur countries. It is embedded in a wider Association Agreement and was made public in summer 2019. The focus is on Austria. One objective of the agreement is to liberalise trade and to improve conditions for making in-vestments in order to create jobs and value added and to give consumers in both regions better access to a wide range of products and services. A gravity model analysis shows that average income gains per person are remarkably similar in both regions. However, the economies in Mercosur countries will benefit more than EU Member States economies in relative terms. A second objective of the agreement is to meet targets that go beyond im-mediate economic benefits, such as to further sustainable development, to prevent envi-ronmental deterioration, to avoid social frictions and to smooth adaptation processes. A qualitative comparison shows the advancements compared to other trade agreements and the limitations of trade agreements to address social and environmental concerns. An in depth-appraisal of the provisions for agriculture shows potential benefits and costs for consumers and farmers in both regions.

H. Oberhofer, "Die Handelseffekte der österreichischen EU-Mitgliedschaft 25 Jahre nach der Volksabstimmung" ,
Mai 2019 , pp. 34.

Datei:fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Studien_2018/Handelseffekte_25JahreEU_final.pdf

Abstract: Am 12. Juni 1994 wurde in Österreich im Rahmen einer Volksabstimmung über einen möglichen Beitritt des Landes zur Europäischen Union (EU) abgestimmt. 66,6% der Bevölkerung haben sich für einen Beitritt ausgesprochen und am 1. Jänner 1995 ist Österreich der EU beigetreten. Das 25 Jahr Jubiläum der Volksabstimmung zum österreichischen Beitritt wird in dieser Studie zum Anlass genommen, die Handelseffekte und die damit einhergehenden BIP-, Beschäftigungs- und Preiseffekte der österreichischen EU-Mitgliedschaft empirisch zu quantifizieren. Auf Basis eines Gravitationsmodells werden in einem ersten Schritt die Handelseffekte der österreichischen EU Mitgliedschaft berechnet. Den Ergebnissen zur Folge handelt Österreich langfristig mit den anderen EU Mitgliedsländern um etwa 46% mehr Waren als es dies ohne den Beitritt tun würde. Dieser Handelsimpuls wird in einem zweiten Schritt in das Adagio Input-Output-Modell des WIFO übertragen. Die Modellberechnungen legen nahe, dass die österreichische EU Mitgliedschaft durch den gesteigerten Außenhandel einen zusätzlichen jährlichen Wachstumsbeitrag von 0,7% (zum realen BIP) induziert hat.

J. Grübler, O. Reiter and R. Stehrer, "The EU-Japan Economic Partnership Agreement and its relevance for the Austrian economy" ,
FIW , Okt. 2018 , pp. 42.

Weblink:https://fiw.ac.at/fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Studien_2018/JP-EPA_Executive_Summary_EN_fiw_20181015.pdf
Datei:https://fiw.ac.at/fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Studien_2018/JP-EPA_Report_20181015_EN_fiw.pdf

Abstract: Seit Anfang des Jahres 2017 vollzieht sich in der internationalen Handelspolitik ein Paradigmenwechsel. Während protektionistische Agenden an Fahrt gewinnen, unterzeichneten die EU und Japan ein Wirtschaftspartnerschaftsabkommen (EPA) am 17. Juli 2018. Es ist das ambitionierteste Abkommen der EU mit einem asiatischen Staat. Die Studie schätzt die Effekte des EU-Japan-EPA für Österreich mittels qualitativer Analysen und einem strukturellen Gravitationsmodell ab. Für Österreich wurde ein kleiner aber positiver Effekt von rund 0.01% des BIP errechnet. Es wird erwartet, dass vor allem der Fertigungsbereich in Mittel- und High-Tech-Sektoren von diesem Abkommen profitieren werden. Since the beginning of 2017, a paradigm change in international trade policy is observed. While the protectionist agendas are on the rise, the EU and Japan signed an Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA) on 17 July 2018. It is the most ambitious agreement of the EU with any Asian state. The study estimates the effect of the EU-Japan EPA for Austria based on qualitative analysis and a structural gravity model. The model predicts small but positive effects of around 0.01% of GDP for Austria. Highest gains are expected for manufactured goods, particularly in the medium- and high-tech sectors.

S. Schiman and A. Reinstaller, "Analyse der Terms-of-Trade Österreichs" ,
Jun. 2015 , pp. 74.

Weblink:fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Studien_2014/04_SchimanReinstaller_PolicyNote.pdf
Datei:fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Studien_2014/04_SchimanReinstaller_ResearchReport.pdf

Abstract: Die Terms-of-Trade (ToT) bezeichnen das Tauschverhältnis von Warenimporten zu Warnexporten, also die Relation von Export- zu Importpreisen. Das Einwirken gegenläufiger Kräfte führte in Österreich dazu, dass sich die ToT im langfristigen Vergleich relativ stabil entwickelten. Die vorliegende Studie analysiert daher nicht nur den Zeit- und Branchenverlauf der ToT, sondern auch die Bestimmungsfaktoren und deren Rolle in der Entwicklung der heimischen ToT: Es werden monetäre (Rohölpreis, Wechselkurs) und nicht-monetäre Determinanten (Gütersortiment, Gütervielfalt/Qualität, Kapitalakkumulation) diskutiert.

V. Kulmer, M. Kernitzkyi, J. Köberl and A. Niederl, "Global Value Chains: Implications for the Austrian economy" ,
Apr. 2015 , pp. 62.

Weblink:fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Studien_2014/03_Kulmer%20et%20al_Policy%20Note_german.pdf
Datei:fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Studien_2014/03_Kulmer_FIW_Research_Report.pdf

Abstract: This study focuses on the implications of rising global value chains (GVCs) on international trade and analysis the impacts on small open economies. Small open economies rely heavily on international trade and are highly integrated in global production networks but have so far been hardly considered in the literature. On the example of Austria, an industrialized small open economy in central Europe, we addressed the role of small open economies in a globalized economy. Based on the WIOD database we apply network analysis and use GVC as well as competiveness indicators to measure the associated risks as well as benefits. Findings imply for Austria a sharp turn in the focus of trade policy away from the traditional gross trade perspective. Austria’s competitiveness has been strengthened considerably via the participation in GVCs since resource and endowment constraints have been overcoming easier and foreign inputs are used in the production processes efficiently enabling vast economies of scale. Results also reveal that the promotion of service oriented activities which are a main source of the domestic value added content in manufacturing exports is of key importance for Austria’s competitiveness on the global market. In particular we found a mutual integration of EU enlargement countries of 2004 and Austria: Austria’s intermediate exports are mainly characterized by high knowledge- and service-intensive manufacturing goods, while the EU enlargement countries of 2004 specialize in low-skilled employment and less knowledge intensive services.

R. Stehrer and R. Stöllinger, "The Central European Manufacturing Core: What is Driving Regional Production Sharing?" ,
Feb. 2015 , pp. 45.

Weblink:fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Studien_2014/Studien_2014_adapted_file_names_stoellinger/02_Stoellinger_Deutsche%20Policy%20Note_The_Central_European_Manufacturing_Core_What_is_Driving_Regional_Production_Sharing.pdf _blank
Datei:fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Studien_2014/Studien_2014_adapted_file_names_stoellinger/02_Stoellinger_FIW_Research_Report_The_Central_European_Manufacturing_Core_What_is_Driving_Regional_Production_Sharing.pdf

Abstract: There is evidence that Europe’s manufacturing activity is increasingly concentrated in a Central European (CE) core which the IMF in a recent publication also refers to as the German-Central European supply chain. This CE manufacturing core is dominated by Germany and in addition comprises Austria and the four Visegrád countries (the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary and Poland). The case of Austria is particularly interesting because it is neither the primary technology leader within the country group, nor is it an offshoring destination and therefore takes an intermediate position. This study provides further empirical evidence for the growing concentration of European industrial production in the CE manufacturing core and explores in detail the structure and development of the regional supply chains over the period 1995-2011. This includes an analysis of the impact of international production integration on the value added share of manufacturing in the economy. The econometric results point towards differentiated effects for the members of the CE manufacturing core and the remaining EU Member States. Focusing on value added generated by the manufacturing sector, the industries which build the backbone of this regional manufacturing cluster are identified. Finally, the report investigates which factors are conducive to the intensification of international production sharing. In line with the notion of a production-investment-services nexus, it is found that (inward) FDI in the manufacturing sector is associated with higher degrees of production integration. Again, the econometric evidence suggests that some of the factors explaining international production sharing, such as the level of export sophistication, have differentiated effects for the members of the CE manufacturing core as compared to the other EU countries.

V. Ebner, C. Mumme, W. Lueghammer, W. Schachinger, W. Schwarzbauer, B. Hochmuth, S. Lappöhn, I. Paterson, A. Pohl, C. Reiner, E. Skriner and A. Schnabl, "Wieviel Potenzial steckt in den BRICS?" ,
Jul. 2014 , pp. 174.

Weblink:fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Studien_2014/01_EbnerSchwarzbauer_PolicyNote.pdf _blank
Datei:fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Studien_2014/01_EbnerSchwarzbauer_ResearchReport.pdf

Abstract: Die vorliegende Studie zum Potenzial der BRICS-Staaten für die österreichische Außenwirtschaft diskutiert in einem ersten Schritt aktuelle makroökonomische Entwicklungen und strukturelle Aspekte der fünf BRICS-Staaten sowie die damit verbundenen Herausforderungen für die Zukunft. In einem zweiten Schritt wird die Außenhandelsverflechtung Österreichs mit diesen Ländern dargestellt und deren ökonomische Bedeutung für Österreichs Wirtschaft ermittelt. Strukturelle (mittels Constant-Market-Shares Analyse) und innovationsökonomische Merkmale der Exportaktivitäten werden in diesem Kontext diskutiert. Außerdem werden einzelne Sektoren anhand ihrer RCA Werte (Revealed Comparative Advantage) identifiziert, bei denen Österreich spezifische Branchenvorteile gegenüber den BRICS-Staaten aufweist. Auf Basis langfristiger Wirtschaftsprojektionen und der strukturellen Anpassungsdynamik Österreichs werden Exportentwicklungspfade abgeschätzt. In einem dritten Schritt wird die Sicht bereits aktiver sowie potenziell aktiver Akteure auf den Märkten der BRICS-Staaten betrachtet. Dazu wurden rund 400 Unternehmen mittels standardisiertem Fragebogen zu motivationalen Faktoren für ein Engagement in diesen Ländern, zu den Herausforderungen und Risiken in diesen Märkten sowie den Erfolgsfaktoren befragt. Interviews mit ExpertInnen aus Politik und Wirtschaft dienten darüber hinaus der Vertiefung der Analyseergebnisse. Auf Basis einer Synthese der Erkenntnisse dieser Untersuchungen werden abschließend Handlungsempfehlungen für die österreichische Wirtschafts- und Außenwirtschaftspolitik abgeleitet.

C. Zeller, A. Hametner, K. Smet and M. Seiwald, "Internationale Expansion in der pharmazeutischen Industrie Österreichs" ,
Apr. 2014 , pp. 100.

Datei:fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Studien_2013_2014/04_Zeller_ResearchReport.pdf

Abstract: Die vorliegende Studie untersucht die internationale Expansion der Pharmaindustrie in Österreich und stellt diese in den Kontext der zunehmenden weltwirtschaftlichen Verflech-tungen. Die Pharmaindustrie in Österreich besteht einerseits aus den Filialen einiger inter-national tätiger Großkonzerne und andererseits aus kleinen und mittelgroßen österrei-chischen Unternehmen, die bestimmte Nischenmärkte bearbeiten und nicht oder nur sehr selektiv international expandieren. Bedeutendes volkswirtschaftliches Gewicht haben vor allem einige wenige integrierte Pharmaunternehmen, die größere Produktionsstätten sowie Forschung und Entwicklung betreiben. Der österreichische Pharmamarkt wird vor allem von Vertriebsgesellschaften ausländischer Konzerne bearbeitet.

S. Ederer and S. Schiman, "Analyse der österreichischen Handelsbilanz" ,
Okt. 2013 , pp. 63.

Weblink:fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Studien_2013_2014/03_EdererSchiman_PolicyNote.pdf _blank
Datei:fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Studien_2013_2014/03_EdererSchiman_ResearchReport.pdf

Abstract: Die vorliegende Analyse der österreichischen Warenverkehrsbilanz diskutiert sowohl die zeitliche Entwicklung der Handelsbilanz und ihre zugrundeliegenden Faktoren als auch die bilateralen Bilanzen mit den wichtigsten Handelspartnern und die Handelsbilanz in ausgewählten Warengruppen. Mit ökonometrischen Verfahren werden kurz- und langfristige Effekte identifiziert und die strukturelle Komponente der Handelsbilanz geschätzt. Zudem wird der Einfluss der Finanzmarkt- und Wirtschaftskrise auf die Warenverkehrsbilanz ermittelt. In einem internationalen Vergleich werden Parallelen und Unterschiede zur deutschen und zur Schweizer Handelsbilanz gezeigt.

R. Stehrer and R. Stöllinger, "Positioning Austria in the Global Economy: Value Added Trade, International Production Sharing and Global Linkages" ,
Okt. 2013 , pp. 57.

Weblink:fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Studien_2013_2014/02_StehrerStoellinger_PolicyBrief.pdf _blank
Datei:fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Studien_2013_2014/02_StehrerStoellinger_ResearchReport.pdf

Abstract: This study investigates Austria’s positions in international production sharing and global value chains exploiting the recently available Global Input-Output Database (WIOD). Researchers and policy-makers become increasingly aware of the fact that production processes are more and more organised internationally, which implies that indicators based e.g. on gross export values become less meaningful as part of this value is made of imported intermediates. As such, statistics and indicators based on a value added rather than gross trade basis and emphasis on the actual (domestic) value added creation due to exports are needed for policy-makers and researchers to draw a more accurate picture of the link between trade and value added creation and the implications thereof. Making use of indicators for measuring different aspects of complex production relations established in the literature such as the degree of vertical specialisation, value added trade and global value chain income, we find that Austria has intensified its participation in international production sharing since 1995 as evidenced, e.g., by the substantial increase in its vertical specialisation index. Tight supplier-customer relationships, above all in medium-high- and high-technology-intensive manufacturing industries, with Germany and increasingly with the neighbouring CEEC economies have contributed strongly to this development. However, international production sharing is also inextricably linked to ‘employment sharing’, meaning that in the presence of vertical specialisation not all jobs related to Austrian exports are also located in Austria. In fact, if based on the individual countries’ labour productivities, Austrian exports embody more foreign than domestic jobs due to significantly lower productivity levels in some of the partner countries. Nevertheless, the development of Austrian exports has been very dynamic over the past decade as manifested for example in a trade surplus since the early 2000s. A counterfactual exercise that compares the actual amount of domestic jobs embodied in Austrian exports with the hypothetical amount of jobs that would be needed to produce Austria’s imports domestically suggests that foreign trade has a positive employment impact in Austria amounting to some 90,000 jobs in 2009 – a result that is closely linked to Austria’s trade balance surplus. The strong export performance of Austria is also revealed by the rising share in total EU value added exports which exceeded 3% in 2011, though this is sometimes masked by the fact that the share in global value added exports declined slightly between 1995 and 2011 as a result of new important players in the arena of international trade, above all China. Finally, analysing the trade slump of the year 2009 we find that ‘re-shoring’ activities of Austrian firms as well as the so-called ‘composition effect’ contributed to the crisis-related decline of Austrian exports.

Y. Wolfmayr, E. Christen and M. Pfaffermayr, "Pattern, Determinants and Dynamics of Austrian Service Exports – A Firmlevel Analysis" ,
Jun. 2013 , pp. 79.

Weblink:fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Studien_2012_13/05-PolicyNotet-ChristenPfaffermayrWolfmayr.pdf _blank
Datei:fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Studien_2012_13/05-ResearchReport-ChristenPfaffermayrWolfmayr.pdf

Abstract: Most firm-level research on the characteristics and strategies of globalized firms focuses on manufacturing industries while firm-level evidence on trade in services is still rare and has just recently begun to emerge. This study uses an unique dataset of Austrian service exporting firms over a four-year period to add to this literature. We show that service export participation is very low and highly concentrated among a few firms and that service exporters are on average larger and more productive than non-exporters. We also find that firm productivity increases with the number of export markets served. The detailed analysis on the export premium suggests the self-selection of firms as well as learning effects from exporting for export starters. The dynamic analysis reveals that the rate of export exits is high for export starters in the first year of exporting, especially for firms of small size. Movements into and out of exporting are however less frequent than moving in and out of individual markets. Entry and exit of markets (extensive margin) is an important component of overall export flows, especially for less popular markets, overall, however the intensive margin of trade contributes most. Analysis based on a Heckman sample selection specification including firm characteristics as well as the standard gravity variables on geographical characteristics of destination markets confirm this finding. In particular, distance to the destination market, firm productivity as well as destination market characteristics (market size, policy environment) significantly influence the probability of exporting but even more so the volume of service trade flows. Results from the counterfactual analysis suggest that export market growth and policy reforms produce the relative strongest impact on the entry into new markets. Hence, this decomposition of overall export growth into contributions attributable to the extensive and intensive margin allow for new insights for economic policy.

B. Dachs and B. Ebersberger, "The Effects of Production Offshoring on R&D and Innovation in the Home Country" ,
Jun. 2013 , pp. 44.

Weblink:fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Studien_2013_2014/01_DachsEbersberger_PolicyNote.pdf _blank
Datei:fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Studien_2013_2014/01_DachsEbersberger_ResearchReport.pdf

Abstract: A strong innovation performance based on R&D, product development and the implementation of advanced production technologies is key for the long-term competitiveness of European economies. This study investigates the effects of production offshoring on R&D and innovation activities of the firm in the home country. The analysis is based on a dataset of more than 3000 manufacturing firms from seven European countries. We employ propensity score matching to compare R&D and innovation activities of firms which have offshored production activities in a previous period to a control group of non-offshoring firms. The analysis finds no negative effect of production offshoring on innovation and technological capabilities of firms in the home country. On contrary, offshoring firms spend significantly more on R&D or product design, and invest more in process innovation than non-offshoring firms. These results support a view on internationalisation of firms that regards offshoring as a strategy of international expansion, and not a passive reaction of firms to a loss of their competitiveness. Our results indicate that this expansion goes hand in hand with innovation and process modernization at home.

O. Koland, M. Schönhart and E. Schmid, "International Trade of Bio-Energy Products – Economic Potentials for Austria" ,
Apr. 2013 , pp. 5.

Datei:fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Studien_2012_13/04-ResearchReport-KolandSchoenhartSchmid.pdf

Abstract: TTRIOPOL studies the role of domestic bioenergy potentials for agriculture, the wider economy and international trade for Austria. In particular, agricultural biomass pro-duction can contribute to significant shares of energy provision in Austria. A detailed scenario is developed to explore the opportunities and challenges of enhanced domestic biomass production based on short rotation forestry (SRF) for heat supply which is currently among the most competitive technologies. To that end, TRIOPOL establishes a model linkage between a sectoral supply-model for Austrian agriculture and a national small open economy general equilibrium model. Model results show that a biomass premium of 65 € per ton dry matter is required to support 250,000 ha of SRF on cropland in Austria by 2020. The thus provided bioheat covers some 33 petajoule (PJ) heat energy demand in Austria; taking into account the likely rising of energy prices by 2020, this number rises to 47 PJ. Substantial land use changes may also be compensated by increases in land use intensity and as well as changes in imports and exports. Scenario results suggest that domestic food production of non-meat commodities falls by 1.3%. The sector meat products profits from the high competitiveness of Austrian livestock production and responds by a slight increase in net exports. The results of the quantitative analysis shall support the scientific and political debate on securing food and energy supply as well as economic development goals.

O. Koland, M. Schönhart and E. Schmid, "International Trade of Bio-Energy Products – Economic Potentials for Austria" ,
Apr. 2013 , pp. 42.

Weblink:fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Studien_2012_13/04-PolicyNote-KolandSchoenhartSchmid.pdf _blank
Datei:fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Studien_2012_13/04-ResearchReport-KolandSchoenhartSchmid.pdf

Abstract: TTRIOPOL studies the role of domestic bioenergy potentials for agriculture, the wider economy and international trade for Austria. In particular, agricultural biomass pro-duction can contribute to significant shares of energy provision in Austria. A detailed scenario is developed to explore the opportunities and challenges of enhanced domestic biomass production based on short rotation forestry (SRF) for heat supply which is currently among the most competitive technologies. To that end, TRIOPOL establishes a model linkage between a sectoral supply-model for Austrian agriculture and a national small open economy general equilibrium model. Model results show that a biomass premium of 65 € per ton dry matter is required to support 250,000 ha of SRF on cropland in Austria by 2020. The thus provided bioheat covers some 33 petajoule (PJ) heat energy demand in Austria; taking into account the likely rising of energy prices by 2020, this number rises to 47 PJ. Substantial land use changes may also be compensated by increases in land use intensity and as well as changes in imports and exports. Scenario results suggest that domestic food production of non-meat commodities falls by 1.3%. The sector meat products profits from the high competitiveness of Austrian livestock production and responds by a slight increase in net exports. The results of the quantitative analysis shall support the scientific and political debate on securing food and energy supply as well as economic development goals.

J. F. Francois and O. Pindyuk, "Modeling the Effects of Free Trade Agreements between the EU and Canada, USA and Moldova/Georgia/Armenia on the Austrian Economy: Model Simulations for Trade Policy Analysis" ,
Jan. 2013 , pp. 38.

Weblink:fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Studien_2012_13/03-PolicyNote-FrancoisPindyuk.pdf _blank
Datei:fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Studien_2012_13/03-ResearchReport-FrancoisPindyuk.pdf

Abstract: This study examines the economic impact on Austria of three possible new EU free trade agreements: (1) an EU-US agreement; (2) an EU-Canada agreement; and (3) an EUArmenia/Georgia/Moldova agreement. This is done with a computational model of the global economy. The trade agreements are modeled as a mix of preferential tariff reductions and reductions in non-tariff measures that affect both goods and services. The primary impact follows from NTM reduction rather than tariff reductions. Of the three agreements, a potential agreement with the US is by far the most important. This follows from the size of the US economy. The US accounts for roughly one-quarter of extra-EU Austrian exports. Overall, the combined impact of the FTAs studied is positive. Most of the impact follows from investment response. Productivity gains from NTM reduction mean a combination of increased national income, higher wages, and employment, and increased capital stocks for the Austrian economy.

M. Falk, "Determinants of Greenfield Investment in Knowledge Intensive Business Services" ,
Dez. 2012 , pp. 41.

Weblink:fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Studien_2012_13/02-PolicyNote-Falk.pdf _blank
Datei:fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Studien_2012_13/02-ResearchReport-Falk.pdf

Abstract: This study investigates the determinants of bilateral Greenfield FDI projects and flows in knowledge intensive business services from OECD/BRIC countries to the EU countries for the period 2003-2010. Greenfield FDI projects are distinguished by type of activity: (i) business services, (ii) design, development and testing activities, (iii) headquarters activities and (iv) R&D services. Another aim of this study is to provide new empirical evidence on the patterns of Greenfield investments in knowledge intensive business services over time, source country and destination country. For Austria, the number of Greenfield investments in headquarter functions remains stable over time whereas Greenfield investments in R&D and related activities declined during the sample period. The same holds true for the number of jobs generated through greenfield investments. The results using panel count data models show that wage costs, tertiary education, corporate taxes, having a common border and sharing a common language all play a significant role in determining bilateral Greenfield FDI projects in knowledge intensive services. However, the impact of corporate taxation and labour costs differs widely across the functions and does not play a role in Greenfield investments in R&D and development, design and testing services.

R. Römisch, "Foreign Trade and FDI in the Austrian Regions – A new methodology to estimate regional trade and an analysis of the crisis effects" ,
Okt. 2012 , pp. 66.

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Abstract: Foreign trade and foreign direct investments (FDI) are key elements for economic development and growth of both a country and its regions. This paper focuses on foreign trade and FDI in Austrian regions (Bundesländer). Unfortunately, data on regional trade in Austria is only available on a very limited basis. The aim of this study is to develop new methodologies for the estimation of exports and imports of Austrian regions and analyse the data generated by this methodology. The basic idea is to disaggregate national foreign trade data to the regional level by using national input-output, regional employment and other supplemental data. This allows estimating Austrian regional foreign trade for the years 1999 to 2009. The study shows a large variation in trade among regions. Lower Austria, Upper Austria, Styria and Vorarlberg are the regions with the highest export share. The importance of regional trade increases between 1999 and 2008; the crisis in 2009 had a strong negative impact. Furthermore, the competitiveness of regions differs considerably. Only three regions, Upper Austria, Styria and Vorarlberg, show trade surplus.

P. Egger and M. Pfaffermayr, "Structural Estimation of Gravity Models with Path-Dependent Market Entry" ,
Sep. 2011 , pp. 65.

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Abstract: This paper develops a structural empirical general equilibrium model of aggregate bilateral trade with path dependence of country-pair level exporter status. Such path dependence is motivated through informational costs about serving a foreign market for first-time entry of (firms in) an export market versus continued export services to that market. We embed the theoretical model into a structural dynamic stochastic econometric model of bilateral selection into import markets and apply it to a data-set of aggregate bilateral exports among 120 countries over the period 1995-2004. In particular, we disentangle the role of changes in trade costs, in labor endowments, and in total factor productivity for trade, bilateral market entry, numbers of firms active, and welfare. Dynamic gains from trade differ significantly from static ones, and path-dependence in market entry cushions effects of impulses in fundamental variables that are detrimental to bilateral trade.

J. F. Francois, M. Holzner and O. Pindyuk, "Austrian Linkages to the European Economy and the Transmission Mechanisms of Economic Crisis" ,
Apr. 2011 , pp. 39.

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Abstract: Like most of the global economy, Austria suffered from recession in 2008-2009. In this paper we deconstruct the pattern of recession, and the transmission of the global recession to Austria’s economy. We provide a new a new breakdown of the value added in Austrian exports, tracing both upstream and downstream linkages and their role in the recession. We also employ a multi-region computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, focused on Austria and its major trading partners. We estimate the combined impacts of the crisis, as implemented through stylized shocks to investment and household demand across major trading partners. These are based on the actual global demand shocks that occurred in 2008-2009. As we are focused on recession, we work with a short-run version of the model, where labor markers are modeled with unemployment and sticky wages, and where industry structure (number of varieties and allocation of capital stock across industries) is fixed. We introduce demand shocks (changes) to global investment demand calibrated from actual investment demand changes during the recession. We also calibrate output shocks based on actual changes in GDP in this period. The focus on backward and forward linkages provides new insight into the transmission channels for focused demand shocks at the border into more diffuse shocks within the broader Austrian economy. While the drop in global demand during the recent recession was focused on sectors producing heavy investment goods, the actual pressure this placed on the Austrian economy also hinged on the linkages of these sectors to other elements of the Austrian economy.

J. F. Francois and O. Pindyuk, "Model Simulations for Trade Policy Analysis: the impact of potential trade agreements on Austria" ,
Apr. 2011 , pp. 35.

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Abstract: In this paper, we examine possible medium-term changes in EU trade policy, including the negotiation and implementation of Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) with regional entities like ASEAN and the NAFTA countries. We also examine the possible conclusion of the Doha Round of multilateral trade negotiations. Such changes in policy at the regional and global level imply changes in trade policy and industrial structure that affect Austria as part of the network of European industry. To accomplish this, we work with a computable general equilibrium model (CGE) of the Austrian economy and its major global trading partners. This model is benchmarked to 2020 macroeconomic projections. The modeling scenarios are based on a mix of tariff reductions for goods and non-tariff barriers (NTB) reductions for services. The services liberalization scenario is based on protection with an “actionability” assumption. The results include estimated changes in GDP, welfare, as well as in the value added contained in Austrian exports. The focus on value added provides important insight to the overall impact on the Austrian economy. In all policy cases examined, the striking messages is the importance of high technology services (ICT and other business services) to the total growth in Austrian exports, on a value added basis. This reflects both the high value added content of trade in this sector, and the apparent comparative advantage of Austria in this sector in the 2020 baseline.

J. Crespo-Cuaresma, M. Pfaffermayr, O. Fernández-Amador and C. Keppel, "Macroeconomic Aspects of European Integration: Fiscal Policy, Trade Integration and the European Business Cycle" ,
Mä. 2011 , pp. 35.

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Abstract: We analyze the role of fiscal policy and intra-European trade in business cycle synchronization in the EU for the period 1995-2008. There is a broad consensus that the relationship between fiscal policy and business cycle comovements and between trade integration and cyclical synchronization are subject to endogeneity problems. We instrument fiscal budget surplus by means of (exogenous) political determinants of fiscal policy acknowledged by the literature, while trade integration is instrumented using covariates which summarize the integration status of countries in the sample, GDP per capita differences with respect to the EU and trade specialization within the EU framework. Our results show that both fiscal policy and trade integration are important determinants of cyclical synchronization. We can conclude that once a high degree of trade integration is reached by countries involved in the European integration process, the role of fiscal policy is particularly relevant and differences in fiscal shocks should be analyzed in detail as a source of coherence in cyclical comovements in Europe. Furthermore, fiscal deficits are shown to be an important potential source of idiosyncratic macroeconomic fluctuations, especially in the eurozone. Our results confirm the rationale of monitoring fiscal developments to assess the adequacy of potential future EMU countries and the need for a broad agreement concerning fiscal policy at the EU level.