Der Forschungsschwerpunkt Internationale Wirtschaft (FIW) (https://www.fiw.ac.at/) ist eine Kooperation zwischen der Wirtschaftsuniversität Wien (WU), der Universität Wien, der Johannes Kepler Universität Linz und der Universität Innsbruck, WIFO, wiiw und WSR. FIW wird von den Bundesministerien BMBFW und BMDW unterstützt.
Abstract: This paper exploits a novel bank-level monthly dataset to assess the effects of global liquidity on the global flows of euro area banks. The period associated with the European sovereign debt crisis has witnessed increased growth in euro area bank claims on extra-euro area residents, against a background of contracting euro area credit supply. Controlling for bank risk, global credit demand, and price effects such as interest rate differentials and exchange rates, empirical evidence supports a range of determinants of global liquidity - including global risk, global bank equity and unconventional monetary policy in the US, UK, Japan and euro area - as drivers of the global flows of euro area banks. Moreover, regression analysis indicates heterogeneity in the influence of global liquidity on global flows across euro area bank type, defined by their balance sheet composition and country of residence (stressed versus non-stressed euro area countries). The results highlight the importance of exogenous factors as drivers of global bank flows and the potential for international leakages of unconventional monetary policy.
Abstract: This paper shows what are the consequences of omitting international dimension issues like international trade and financial channels when modeling the effects of unconventional monetary policy tools. To evaluate the size of discrepancies between consequences of a large-scale asset purchase program in a small open economy and a closed one, we extend one of the existing models analyzing a large-scale asset purchases by adding small open economy features. Finally we compare it with the original version. We find that previous studies might overestimate the extent to what large-scale asset purchases affect real activity. Allowing agents to trade internationally with goods as well as saving via foreign, currency denominated deposits leads to a leakages that result in substantial differences between large-scale asset purchases in a small open economy and an autarky. Moreover, our results show that negative supply side shocks have less severe consequences in a small open economy comparing to an autarky, because they are offset by the real exchange rate depreciation which boosts competitiveness.
Abstract: In its recent World Employment and Social Outlook, the ILO published estimates of the number of jobs related to global supply chains (GSCs) for 40 countries in 1995-2013. This paper provides a detailed description of the methodology that was used for the estimation and documents in more detail global linkages in production, becoming apparent on the labour market. The paper also shows new evidence on the number of jobs supported by different export destinations and analyzes the number of GSC-related jobs in different country groups. In particular, we find evidence for the changing role of China, from a country in which GSC-related jobs are located to a country whose import demand creates these jobs elsewhere. We also show that production linkages between emerging economies create an increasing number of jobs. When focusing on jobs related to manufacturing GSCs, trends in GSC-related jobs reveal the increasing importance of the services sector. Finally, we conduct a sectoral regression analysis and provide evidence that increased GSC participation of a sector as a supplier can be associated with a drop in the wage share.
Abstract: The euro area crisis is often linked to the emergence of current account imbalances. As most of the deficit countries experienced pronounced credit booms at the same time that these imbalances were building up, this paper investigates the link between domestic credit developments and the current account balance. Using a panel error correction specification, the estimation results show that flows of bank loans to the non-financial private sector are a significant determinant of the current account and that they – together with changes in competitiveness – constituted the most important factor driving the build-up of current account imbalances in the deficit countries. Accordingly, impeding an increase in private sector indebtedness seems to be a promising way to dampen the formation of unsustainable current account imbalances.
Abstract: This paper develops a new international trade model with capital market imperfections and endogenous borrowing costs in general equilibrium. A key element of our model is that firm heterogeneity arises from the interaction of credit constraints at the firm-level with financial frictions at the country-level. Producers differ in pledgeability of sales which results in firm heterogeneity, if financial institutions are imperfect. We show that endogenous adjustments of capital costs represent a new channel that reduces common gains from globalization. Trade liberalization increases the borrowing rate, leads to a reallocation of market shares towards unconstrained producers and a larger fraction of credit-rationed firms. This increases the within-industry variance of, sales and reduces welfare gains as consumers dislike price heterogeneity. Our theory is consistent with new empirical patterns from World Bank firm-level data. We highlight that credit frictions are positively related to the degree of product market competition and to the variance of sales across firms.
Abstract: Economic Growth and External Stabilisation (defined in terms of Current Account Balance as a percentage of GDP) is a top priority for policy-makers, while laying out the macroeconomic framework for Indian economy. Government of India had targeted for an average GDP growth rate of 9 percent and a Current Account Deficit (CAD) below 2.5 percent of GDP during the five-year period from 2012-2017. However, the actual CAD of Indian economy widened to 4.2% of GDP in 2011-12, and further reached a historic high CAD of 4.7 percent of GDP in 2012-13. Given such a scenario, this paper aims to estimate the impact of services trade on India’s Economic Growth and Current Account Balance, during the post-reform period from 1990-91 to 2011-12. Facilitated by economic globalisation, domestic liberalization, and technological advances which resulted in increasing international fragmentation of the production process, India’s services trade began growing rapidly post 1991. With the help of Thirlwall’s Balance of Payments Constrained Growth Model and ARDL approach to cointegration, this study estimates and establishes the crucial role of services trade in achieving the policy objectives of economic growth and external stabilisation simultaneously for Indian economy. This study also examines the impact of services exports on India’s economic growth, by comparing the latest officially published input-output table of India for 2007-08, with that of 1993-94. Among the major services in India’s export basket, construction, transport and business services are found to exhibit strongest backward linkages, and hence can act as engines of export-led growth. Role of services imports in India’s export-led growth and the import content going into production of India’s services exports is analysed using the TIVA database for 1995 and 2008, which have implications for India’s external stabilisation. Foreign value added content in India’s services exports is found to be highest in case of business services, transport services and telecommunications.
Abstract: In this paper we confirm the existence of improvements of firm productivity when domestic upstream and downstream firms become more internationalized and therefore offshore (import intermediate inputs) and inshore (export final output for intermediate input usage) intensively. China’s accession to the WTO, which in the case of Belgium reduced trade barriers to China, help us confirm that these inter-industry productivity improvements can also be generated form a quasi-trade liberalization event. Upstream linkages are the dominant source of these productivity benefits and are reaped mainly from medium-low tech, labor intensive and upstream industries. Finally, we draw upon the importance of biases in our results from misspecifications common in the literature. From ignoring the dynamic nature of productivity, results appear overestimated or with sign reversals. From estimating a value-added instead of a gross-output production function, results become spurious.
Abstract: This article aims at assessing the main characteristics of the business cycle of 80 developed and developing countries. By comparing the possibility for these economies to enter or to exit a recession and the associated consequences, it aims at complementing existing literature with regard to scale and/or frequency of the study. Following the usual definition of a recession, an algorithmic classification tends to show that, surprisingly, developed and developing countries face similar probabilities to enter or to exit a recession, respectively around 5% and 18%. This aspect contradicts existing literature, which often advocates a greater volatility of developing countries’ business cycle with more frequent recessions. However emerging markets and economies face output per capita losses around twice as important as advanced ones when they undergo a recession. These observations are then tested using a non-linear parametric Markov-Switching Model. If the statistical validity of this method is bound by data availability, it echoes in a really good manner the pattern derived using a non-parametric approach. Estimating the model on the cyclical component of the series, derived using an HP filter, fits the best previous remarks. It also replicates other major characteristics. Indeed while developed countries form a rather homogeneous group, developing countries demonstrate greater heterogeneity. Latin American countries appear as the most vulnerable ones whereas Asian countries perform better than all other groups.
Abstract: Fixed versus flexible exchange rate dilemma has become a subject of rigorous academic discussions for decades. Advantages of exchange rates flexibility contrasted benefits of exchange rate stability though a phenomenon known as the fear of floating favoured exchange rate variability and its positive effects on economies. Relative diversity in the exchange rate regimes in EU11 countries motivated many authors to investigate the sources of their real exchange rate volatility provided that even fixed exchange rates may fluctuate via adjustments in prices and wages. However, fixed exchange rate perspective associated with Eurozone membership may induce changed patterns in the real exchange rate determination in countries that benefit from nominal exchange rate flexibility prior to euro adoption. In the paper we analyse sources of real exchange rates fluctuations in EU11 countries. SVAR methodology and impulse-response functions will be employed to examine the responsiveness of real exchange rates to the underlying structural shocks by employing SVAR methodology. Our results indicate an increased responsiveness of real exchange rates in EMU non-member countries to demand and supply shocks, particularly due to the effects of the crisis period. At the same time, real exchange rates in EMU member countries became more responsive to nominal shocks.
Abstract: In this paper, we develop a simple general-equilibrium trade model in which heterogeneous workers make an investment decision in acquiring advanced managerial skills and choose their optimal effort level based on their own individual organizational beliefs and CEO’s managerial vision. In doing so, we show how trade liberalization and/or changes in managerial vision of CEO may lead to non-monotonic income changes within firms due to the interaction between workers’ beliefs and CEO’s managerial vision. Whether a stronger (or weaker) CEO’s managerial vision benefits the firm or not depends on its extent relative to workers’ overall beliefs, and may involve some winners and losers within firms.
Abstract: This paper analyses the location choice of German investors in the Czech Republic based on a unique dataset covering all Czech companies with a German equity holder in 2010. The identification of the regional determinants of foreign direct investment (FDI) location is an important regional policy issue as FDI is supposed to improve the labour market conditions of the host region. Using a nested logit approach the impact of agglomeration economies, labour market conditions and distance on the location choice decision is investigated. The main result of the paper is that apart from a low distance to the location of the parent company the attractiveness of a Czech district for German investors is mainly driven by agglomeration economies. Besides localisation economies the agglomeration of German companies in a region plays a decisive role. The importance of labour market characteristics differs between investment sectors, sizes and periods.
Abstract: In this paper, I measure the importance of remittances and financial development for developing countries. I estimate an index of overall financial conditions and use it to determine the relevance of the financial sector as a transmission channel for remittances to affect economic growth. The index brings together information from existing measures, reflecting size, depth and efficiency of the financial sector. It is created by means of an unobserved components model. I show that the more financial development in a country, the smaller becomes the impact of remittances on economic growth and it can even turn negative. For countries with weaker financial markets there is a positive effect, but significant only at the earliest stages of financial development. The effect becomes negative in the third quartile of financial development. These results hold irrespective of the measure of financial development included, but are most profound in case of the created index. This means that estimates based on proxies might be slightly biased. I also show that countries with both low levels of remittances and financial development should first focus on developing the latter, while migrants' transfers become important for growth if the country has a moderate level of financial development.
Abstract: This paper constructs agreement specific instruments in order to estimate the effect of membership in a regional cooperation agreement (RCA) on institutional change. For a sample of 144 emerging and developing economies, the results show that membership in a RCA explains a significant part of the cross country variation in institutional reforms. EU and NATO-related agreements are an important reason why emerging markets in Eastern Europe and Central Asia have been better reformers despite their socialistic heritage. RCAs are a main factor why African economies are still doing very poorly in terms of institutional reforms. I show that the construction of the RCA and the willingness delegate sovereignty is behind the effect on institutions and is an important.
Abstract: Production and trade processes in the textile industry have been undergoing tremendous changes in structure due to both changes in technology (i.e. increased mechanization and automation processes) and in the institutional environment (i.e. the assignment of the WTO treaty in 1994). This paper studies the restructuring process in the textile industry from the perspective of two major textile producing countries in the EU15, i.e. Italy and Portugal between the two years 1995 and 2009. As a starting point, a detailed descriptive analysis of the global distribution of the textile industry and changes therein is provided. By means of two international textile trade networks (ITTNs), showing (1) trade in value added and (2) trade in labour, we next discuss spatial trade patterns and changes therein. Focusing on the ITTNs, we then figure out how these countries’ textile industries were affected in terms of specialisation patterns, movements along the global value chain and vertical specialisation. Combining the merits of a multiregional I/O-framework with network analysis both qualitative and quantitative aspects of the experienced restructuring process are figured out. This paper contributes to a better understanding of changes in national economic structures resulting from changes in the institutional and technological change without masking the international context.
Abstract: This paper investigates to which extent outward foreign direct investment (FDI) affects domestic wages. We are first interested in the raw wage differential between multinational and domestic firms. Results reveal that multinational companies pay a wage premium to their employees, even within precise skill-groups (blue-collar workers, intermediate occupations and managers). The wage premium is increasing within the wage distribution. In a second step, we use spell of workers within a firm in a fixed effect model to analyze the effect of outward FDI within job-spells. Results suggest that outward FDI raises wages for managers and reduces wages for workers performing offshorable tasks. The positive effect of FDI on managers’ wages is mainly driven by the intensive margin of outward FDI, that is by large firms already established abroad. This result is observed even after controlling for endogenous workers’ mobility.
Abstract: This paper shows that currency arrangements impact on credit available through default incentives. To this end we build a symmetric two-country model with money and imperfect credit market integration. With the Euro Area context in mind, we capture differences in credit market integration by variations in the cost for banks to grant credit for cross-border purchases. We show that for a high enough level of this cost, currency integration may magnify default incentives, leading to more stringent credit rationing and lower welfare than in a regime of two currencies. The integration of credit markets restores the optimality of the currency union.
Abstract: Recent decades have witnessed an increasing integration of developing countries into global value chains (GVCs). This growing participation in global production sharing has raised hopes for economic upgrading within such value chains. However, globalization has intensified international competition, and achieving economic upgrading is not an easy task. Moreover, the social consequences of participating in GVCs are not always positive; however, they have received considerably less attention in the literature. This paper suggests a simple and parsimonious approach to measuring economic and social upgrading (and downgrading) in GVCs. Applying this parsimonious methodology and using quantitative secondary data, we analyze how widespread upgrading has been in four selected manufacturing GVCs: apparel, wood furniture, automotive, and mobile phones. We also investigate to what extent downgrading is part of the reality and undertake a comparative analysis across GVCs, regions and country groups (developing vs. developed countries). We find that the promise of industrial upgrading through participation in GVCs does not materialize for everyone. Indeed, economic upgrading has taken place in just over a quarter of the countries in our sample, among them mainly developing countries. Finally, we examine the relationship between economic performance and social performance in the different GVCs to investigate whether or not economic upgrading is typically associated with social upgrading. While patterns differ across GVCs, we find that economic upgrading is more likely to occur simultaneously with social upgrading than without, and vice versa. Our analysis, thus, suggests that economic upgrading is conducive to, but not sufficient for, social upgrading to occur.
Abstract: We investigate the effects of human capital accumulation on trade and productivity by integrating a micro-founded education and fertility decision of households into a model of international trade with firm heterogeneity. Our theoretical framework leads to two testable implications: i) the export share of a country increases with the education level of its population, ii) the average profitability of firms located in a country also increases with the education level of its population. We find that these implications are supported by empirical evidence for a panel of OECD countries from 1960 to 2010.
Abstract: This paper presents a dynamic North-South general-equilibrium model where households have non-homothetic preferences. Innovation takes place in a rich North while norms in a poor South imitate products manufactured in North. Introducing non-homothetic preferences delivers a complete international product cycle as described by Vernon (1966), where the different stages of the product cycle are not only determined by supply side factors but also by the distribution of income between North and South. We ask how changes in Southern labor productivity, South's population size and inequality across regions affects the international product cycle. In line with presented stylized facts about the product cycle we predict a negative correlation between adoption time and per capita incomes.
Abstract: According to current international climate change regime countries are responsible for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, which result from economic activities within national borders, including emissions from producing goods for exports. At the same time imports of carbon intensive goods are not regulated by international agreements. In this paper emissions embodied in exports and imports of Russia were calculated with the use of inter-country input-output tables. It was revealed that Russia is the second largest exporter of emissions embodied in trade and the large portion of these emissions is directed to developed countries. The reasons for high carbon intensity of Russia’s exports are obsolete technologies (in comparison to developed economies) and the structure of commodity exports. Because of large amount of net exports of carbon intensive goods the current approach to emissions accounting does not suit interests of Russia. On the one hand, Russia, as well as other large net emissions exporters, is interested in the revision of allocation of responsibility between producers and consumers of carbon intensive products. On the other hand, current technological backwardness makes Russia vulnerable to the policy of “carbon protectionism”, which can be implemented by its trade partners.
Abstract: This paper examines how cross-border differences in the stringency of bank regulations affect U.S. banks’ international activities. The analysis relies on a unique bank-level dataset on the globally most active U.S. banks’ balance sheet as well as their cross-border, foreign affiliate lending and foreign market entry choices in 82 foreign countries in the 2003-2013 period. Results show that U.S. banks are significantly more likely to enter foreign markets with relatively laxer bank capital and disclosure requirements, and exit foreign markets with relatively stricter deposit insurance schemes and more restrictions on activities. Banks substitute away from foreign affiliate lending (via subsidiaries in the foreign country) towards cross-border lending (originating from the U.S.) in foreign countries with more powerful and independent bank regulators and limits on activities.
Abstract: Given the decline in growth momentum in the manufacturing sector in many OECD countries, the role of knowledge-based capital has emerged as a key driver for sustained growth. While empirical studies on estimating knowledge spillovers have usually been undertaken at the country level, the spillover effects can be more definitive only if the analysis is conducted at the industry-level. This paper therefore attempts to identify spillovers by disentangling technological innovations into intra- and inter-national knowledge innovations at industry level in driving per capita output growth. Our main findings are first, that there is evidence for a robust positive relationship between R&D, human capital and output growth across these countries at industry-level. Second, the potential of international spillover gains is greater in countries with higher human capital and in industries whose pattern of production is more R&D oriented, import intensive, and dependent on vertical FDI. Finally, significant heterogeneity is found between high and low-tech industries with high-tech group displaying greater knowledge spillovers, suggesting that low-tech industries need to be more innovative in order to absorb the technological advancements of domestic and international rivals.
Abstract: This paper highlights the crucial role played by international access to intermediate inputs to explain firm-level performance, via two channels simultaneously: trade and FDI. We develop a simple theoretical model showing that trade integration of input market entails an efficiency improvement within firms able to import (gains from input switching) and an efficiency decline within other firms (losses from domestic input availability). At the same time, FDI integration of input market implies non-importers’ efficiency enhancement (gains from input switching) and some ambiguous effects on importers’ efficiency (due to additional losses from foreign input availability). Using firm-level data from the Chinese manufacturing sector over the period 2002-2006, we find some results coherent with our theoretical predictions.
Abstract: Against the background of a changing landscape of trade and investment governance in the 21st century, characterised by the proliferation of deep preferential trade agreements (PTAs), this paper econometrically tests the importance of global value chain trade and regulatory differences in explaining the likelihood of a country pair to include an (enforceable) investment provision in the PTA. The spatial probit analysis, based on Bayesian Monte Carlo Markov Chain simulation, reveals that higher production network trade and strongly differing legal frameworks are indeed associated with a higher likelihood of including (enforceable) investment provisions. This is true even when controlling for interdependence between countries and conducting a variety of sensitivity checks, underscoring the importance of deep integration in the context of global value chains. However, when excluding EU countries from the sample, investment coverage and enforceability is rather driven by positive spatial interdependence between countries, raising the question whether the focus on global value chain trade and regulatory differences is something characteristic of EU trade policy making.
Abstract: Globalisation, has intensified the demand preference for quality labour, that embodies more knowledge and competency/skill to maximise the production in one hand, and it has also changed the life style and consumption behavior of the society on the other. As a consequence, this has led to significant changes in the composition and structure of the economy, and also, the reallocation of labour. The study examines the reallocation effect (or structural change) and the direct effect of globalization on labour productivity growth in BRICS countries. The study also examines the relative role of consumption factors and other factors for the structural development during globalization. The study uses shift–share analysis, dynamic panel data method and input-output tables for the empirical analysis during 1990-91 to 2011-12. The findings show that the contribution of structural change is relatively significant in China and India. The globalization measures including international trade and FDI are found to have significant impact on the upsurge of labour productivity growth in BRICS, where the consumption demand predominates among the factors of structural development.