FIW Trade Indicator
As expected, Austria’s foreign trade in goods recovered in October
The innovative FIW Trade Indicator shows a recovery in foreign trade in goods following the flood-related decline in September.
Since April 2024, the BMAW has been publishing up-to-date, high-quality estimates for nominal, real and seasonally adjusted trade in goods data on the FIW website on a monthly basis using an econometric model developed by the Institute for Advanced Studies. This means that up-to-date forecasts (so-called nowcasts) of Austria’s monthly foreign trade are available – with a lead of more than two months compared to the publications of Statistics Austria. In addition to the nominal values, the FIW Trade Indicator also shows price-adjusted real values. This real foreign trade data gives an exact impression of the actual increase in Austria’s welfare due to foreign trade and is also seasonally and working day adjusted. As a result, the nowcasts differ from the unadjusted, nominal values published by Statistics Austria.
Last Update: 13.11.2024
In September 2024, the floods in eastern Austria severely impaired Austria’s foreign trade in goods. Large-scale failures in the rail infrastructure network are likely to have led to a significant slowdown in foreign trade dynamics.
Foreign trade in goods is likely to have recovered as expected in October.
The sharp slump in seasonally adjusted real exports of goods in September (-2.9% compared to the previous month) and real imports of goods (-4.0% compared to the previous month) was largely due to the aftermath of the floods. It was expected that the situation would normalise again in October and that the losses from September would be made up for.
Accordingly, real exports of goods increased by +5.1% and imports of goods by +3.6% in October compared to the previous month. Compared to the same month last year, real exports (-5.3%) and real imports (-1.3%) continued to decline. However, the year-on-year comparison is distorted by the previous year’s momentum. October 2023 saw strong export growth and an exceptional slump in goods imports.
Overall, Austria’s foreign trade in goods has now stabilised at a low level. According to the FIW Trade Indicator, real exports of goods in October were around 5% above the annual low in May, while imports of goods were just above the low in May.
Austria’s foreign trade momentum is likely to be strongly influenced by the international economic environment. The CPB World Trade Monitor continues to show weak but stable growth in global trade for August compared to the same month last year, while the eurozone continues to suffer from significantly negative growth rates.
The FIW Trade Indicator of the BMAW
Statistik Austria publishes the data on nominal exports and imports at the beginning of each month with a time delay of more than 2 months.
The IHS was commissioned to create a nowcast (nominal/real exports and imports, seasonally adjusted) for the current month (currently January 24 / Statistics Austria published November 23) using state-of-the-art econometric methods and up-to-date, high-frequency data (weekly and monthly data).
From April 2024, the BMAW will create a nowcast based on the model and input data to be provided by the IHS.
The nowcast will provide up-to-date estimates of Austria’s monthly foreign trade data (lead on Statistics Austria > 2 months).
The IHS was commissioned to prepare a nowcast (nominal/real exports and imports, seasonally adjusted) for the current month (currently January 24 / Statistics Austria published November 23) using state-of-the-art econometric methods and up-to-date, high-frequency data (weekly and monthly data).
From April 2024, the BMAW will create a nowcast based on the model and input data to be provided by the IHS.
The nowcast will provide up-to-date estimates of Austria’s monthly foreign trade data (lead on Statistics Austria > 2 months).
In addition to nominal values, the FIW Trade Indicator also shows price-adjusted real values (only available from Statistics Austria on a quarterly basis). Against the backdrop of high and volatile price increases, real foreign trade data provides an accurate impression of Austria’s actual welfare gains from foreign trade.
The FIW Trade Indicator data is seasonally and working day adjusted. This avoids distortions due to seasonal influences or the storage of public holidays. In addition to a more precise assessment of the growth rates of foreign trade, this also enables a timely assessment of economic trends in foreign trade (stagnation/upturn/downturn).
Further informations: IHS project report
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